# Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 16.50 million

> Above 15.50 million leads at 94%, runner-up 79% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rduvisits
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:48.549Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-28

## Headline

- Leader: Above 15.50 million at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 15.75 million at 79%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15.50 million | 94¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-rdus-total-passenger-traffic-for-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxrduvisits-27feb28-t15.50 |
| Above 15.75 million | 79¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rdus-total-passenger-traffic-for-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxrduvisits-27feb28-t15.75 |
| Above 16.00 million | 34¢ | −1pp | $133 | kalshi | /markets/will-rdus-total-passenger-traffic-for-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxrduvisits-27feb28-t16.00 |
| Above 16.25 million | 6¢ | −2pp | $975 | kalshi | /markets/will-rdus-total-passenger-traffic-for-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxrduvisits-27feb28-t16.25 |
| Above 16.50 million | 5¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-rdus-total-passenger-traffic-for-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxrduvisits-27feb28-t16.50 |
| Above 16.75 million | 3¢ | — | $621 | kalshi | /markets/will-rdus-total-passenger-traffic-for-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxrduvisits-27feb28-t16.75 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 15.50 million | Above 15.75 million | Above 16.00 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | — | 88 | — |
| 2026-08-19 | — | 89 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 96 | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | 96 | 87 | 55 |
| 2026-08-24 | 95 | 80 | 46 |
| 2026-08-25 | — | 79 | 41 |
| 2026-08-26 | 94 | — | 36 |
| 2026-08-27 | — | — | 35 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-23 · Above 16.25 million −13pp 20→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 16.50 million −11pp 16→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above 16.00 million −9pp 55→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above 15.75 million −7pp 87→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Above 16.00 million −5pp 46→41¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question asks whether RDU (Raleigh-Durham International Airport) will handle more than 16.50 million passengers across 2026. The 15% probability reflects skepticism that the airport will reach this higher threshold, though markets assign 88% odds to exceeding 15.75 million. The gap between contract prices suggests markets view 15.75–16.50 million as a tight distribution zone. Passenger traffic depends on airline capacity additions, route expansions, regional economic growth, and competitive dynamics with nearby airports. Final 2026 traffic figures typically release in early 2027, though monthly reports throughout the year provide interim signals. The primary driver remains whether carriers commit incremental flights to RDU, particularly through hub growth or new market entries that boost connecting traffic.

### Key factors

- RDU's historical annual growth rates and recent traffic trends relative to 16.50 million baseline
- Announced airline capacity expansions or route launches scheduled for 2026
- Regional economic indicators affecting business and leisure travel demand in North Carolina
- Competition from Charlotte (CLT) and Atlanta (ATL) that may divert potential RDU passengers
- Actual monthly passenger counts through mid-to-late 2026 as concrete leading indicators

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rduvisits
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rduvisits

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.