# Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 3 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/real-salt-lake-vs-inter-miami-cf-more-markets
Updated: 2026-06-27T12:20:51.222Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $83

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meredith Marks | 81¢ | ±0 | $83 | kalshi | /markets/will-meredith-marks-be-on-any-episode-of-the-real-kalshi-kxmediaguestmmarks-27-mer |
| Inter Miami | 10¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/where-will-neymar-go-next-inter-miami-kalshi-kxjoinclub-26oct02neymar-mia |
| Inter Miami FC | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/where-will-cristiano-ronaldo-go-next-inter-miami-f-kalshi-kxjoinclub-26oct02cronaldo-mia |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 31 |
| 2026-06-14 | 79 |
| 2026-06-19 | 81 |
| 2026-06-26 | 46 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · Inter Miami +5pp 5→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 29% probability reflects the likelihood of Real Salt Lake defeating Inter Miami CF in an upcoming match. The current level appears driven by team form, recent performance records, and head-to-head matchup dynamics between the two MLS clubs. Inter Miami's recent acquisitions and roster strength relative to Real Salt Lake's current lineup would be central to assessing whether this probability should move higher or lower. The match result itself will resolve this contract, making the actual game date the primary catalyst for clarifying whether 29% accurately captured Real Salt Lake's chances.

### Key factors

- Real Salt Lake's current league standing and win-loss record compared to Inter Miami CF's recent form
- Inter Miami's player availability and roster composition, particularly recent signings and their integration into the team
- Head-to-head historical performance between these two clubs over the past 2-3 seasons
- Home vs. away designation and venue factors, including elevation effects if the match is in Salt Lake City
- Real Salt Lake's actual match date against Inter Miami, which serves as the definitive resolution event

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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