# Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 12 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/real-salt-lake-vs-portland-timbers-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:53.703Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 41% / Polymarket 33% — 8pp spread
- 24h volume: $19

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salt Lake | 28¢ | — | $12 | kalshi | /markets/dallas-vs-salt-lake-winner-salt-lake-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may09dalrsl-rsl |
| Tie | 22¢ | — | $7 | kalshi | /markets/dallas-vs-salt-lake-winner-tie-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may09dalrsl-tie |
| Meredith Marks | 67¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-meredith-marks-be-on-any-episode-of-the-real-kalshi-kxmediaguestmmarks-27-mer |
| Real Salt Lake | 34¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-club-will-cristiano-ronaldo-play-for-next-re-polymarket-0x87cc5b1db831796288d4849566fe67052c69e0c2c34c600489c2a5f9cdde4343 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 56¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/salt-lake-at-dallas-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may09dalrsl-2 |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 35¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/salt-lake-at-dallas-totals-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may09dalrsl-3 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/salt-lake-at-dallas-totals-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may09dalrsl-4 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 77¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/salt-lake-at-dallas-totals-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may09dalrsl-1 |
| Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score | 62¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/salt-lake-at-dallas-both-teams-to-score-both-teams-kalshi-kxmlsbtts-26may09dalrsl |
| Dallas | 40¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/dallas-vs-salt-lake-winner-dallas-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may09dalrsl-dal |
| Portland Timbers | 31¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-club-will-cristiano-ronaldo-play-for-next-po-polymarket-0x9ac01aaed72b94d8e9289101debad13e656d1d0d2ba17ca8f58f25de36da1907 |
| Salt Lake wins by over 1.5 goals | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/salt-lake-wins-by-over-15-goals-salt-lake-wins-by-kalshi-kxmlsspread-26may09dalrsl-rsl1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 51 |
| 2026-04-17 | 66 |
| 2026-04-26 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 39 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Portland Timbers +30pp 0→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Portland Timbers +19pp 30→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Real Salt Lake −5pp 39→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Portland Timbers −5pp 42→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Portland Timbers −5pp 37→32¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/real-salt-lake-vs-portland-timbers-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=real-salt-lake-vs-portland-timbers-more-markets

## License

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