# Will a reconciliation bill become law before Jan 1, 2028

> Closed. Last odds frozen 18 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/recncbill-26jul
Updated: 2026-07-23T05:20:51.664Z
Category: legislation
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $608

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 3¢ | +1pp | $608 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-reconciliation-bill-become-law-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxrecncbill-26jul-29jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 29 |
| 2026-07-26 | 41 |
| 2026-08-03 | 40 |
| 2026-08-09 | 37 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-04 · Before Jan 1, 2029 −6pp 40→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Before Jan 1, 2029 −4pp 36→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Before Jan 1, 2029 +4pp 32→36¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 6% chance that Congress will pass and the President will sign a reconciliation bill into law before January 1, 2028—roughly 17 months from now. Reconciliation bills are used to bypass the Senate filibuster and require only a simple majority, making them a key legislative tool when one party controls both chambers. The low probability suggests that either unified government control, political will for reconciliation legislation, or both are seen as unlikely in the near term. Key catalysts include the November 2026 midterm elections, which will determine which party controls the House and Senate during the critical 2027 legislative window, and any shifts in economic conditions that might prompt stimulus or spending measures. The price could move significantly based on election results, changes in Congressional composition, or announced legislative priorities from party leadership.

### Key factors

- Which party controls the House and Senate after November 2026 midterms, as reconciliation requires single-party majorities in both chambers
- The stated legislative priorities of House and Senate leadership for the 2027-2028 session—whether budget, tax, healthcare, or other reconciliation-eligible provisions are actively planned
- Historical frequency of reconciliation bill passage: approximately one per Congress on average, but varies sharply with party control and legislative agenda
- Current economic conditions and deficit concerns as of summer 2026, which influence appetite for reconciliation spending bills
- Whether divided government results from midterms, which would require bipartisan compromise and eliminate reconciliation as a viable pathway

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/recncbill-26jul
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=recncbill-26jul

## License

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