# Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 76%, runner-up 53% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:23.187Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 76%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 53%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 76¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x2e35d2a371eb9f57720f882c8f2ba05eb12bdebe3d1709e3e5e6d4ec33b7f460 |
| Both Teams to Score | 53¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-both-teams-t-polymarket-0x7c53e9160423d5c01b9ed330530bee3f28bbc550a2c0363064fad9db49f21f69 |
| O/U 2.5 | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x5f871d298ceb410af90dc99daccb2e3a30265f80cbc766a9eb5dfed54ba9f819 |
| Santos FC (-1.5) | 31¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-santos-fc-15-polymarket-0x977bf5ecd7328decd940d046ef71f9cad59afae32ac394055cd14a9ca47b7607 |
| O/U 3.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x649f758c6dde622a7bf75befacc1a7c2f70d0afef0894db50623c07f953fc7d8 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xbdae7dda47bdc8a73d6f94678f92dcf81f0105c1e960b850b519bee73c728701 |
| Recoleta FC (-2.5) | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-recoleta-fc-polymarket-0x59c79791557e4efa66098d63bddd4a633dfe0673d3ba2cf096c50f2470806901 |
| Santos FC (-2.5) | 10¢ | +11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-santos-fc-25-polymarket-0x8b7d1b3045495db64db1602f2a2dc2e9b1a14134ffd5ca46df6da70ef0b6e535 |
| Recoleta FC (-1.5) | 7¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-recoleta-fc-polymarket-0x227b414cce0aac66306799ab8092facfc2457b07009b983aaf774d0509b62799 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | Santos FC (-1.5) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | — | 58 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 76 | 54 | 32 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Santos FC (-2.5) +11pp 12→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Recoleta FC (-1.5) +7pp 6→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Recoleta FC (-2.5) +4pp 9→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Both Teams to Score −4pp 58→54¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects current market sentiment that Recoleta FC has a 53% chance of winning against Santos FC, making it the favored outcome but not overwhelmingly so. The market is relatively thin, with the leading contract priced at 53 cents on Polymarket, suggesting moderate confidence rather than consensus. Movement in this probability would depend on team news—injuries, lineup changes, or recent form—as well as any shift in betting volume that might indicate informed positioning. The match itself will resolve the uncertainty definitively. Key drivers include relative team strength, home-field advantage if applicable, and any late-breaking information about player availability or tactical adjustments that emerges before kickoff.

### Key factors

- The 53% probability represents a modest favorite status, not a heavily skewed outcome, leaving meaningful implied probability (~47%) for Santos FC or other scenarios
- Polymarket contract volume ($0–$327 24h across listed contracts) indicates relatively low liquidity, so larger positions could shift displayed probabilities noticeably
- No publicly cited injury reports, suspensions, or roster news are reflected in the summary data, making pre-match team updates a potential catalyst for repricing
- Historical head-to-head record, current league standings, and goal-differential trends between these teams would typically anchor longer-term probability estimates
- The final match result will provide binary resolution; no partial or conditional outcomes are indicated in the winner-take-all structure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.