# Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc
Updated: 2026-05-07T00:50:58.911Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Santos FC at 66%
- Runner-up: Draw (Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC) at 23%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos FC | 66¢ | +11pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-santos-fc-polymarket-0x16aabcce3599427c186ee513559e5fe69c7f01567333eebbd71d848237cf08ee |
| Draw (Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC) | 23¢ | +5pp | $240 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-draw-recoleta-fc-vs-santo-polymarket-0xb79c11e5b925beb91b2ba3115d9bac478c6f5d588ac8ec079f68c52f3985233a |
| Recoleta FC | 13¢ | −13pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-recoleta-fc-polymarket-0xb7af628dcc187e25e4d86cc151df22fca91bb83bb551041d41d2a91a9cc555d6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Santos FC | Draw (Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC) | Recoleta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 56 | 27 | 20 |
| 2026-05-02 | 56 | 27 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 57 | 25 | 19 |
| 2026-05-06 | 68 | 30 | 6 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Recoleta FC −13pp 19→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Santos FC +11pp 57→68¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC) +5pp 25→30¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 56% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Santos FC is favored to win this matchup against Recoleta FC. This represents a notable lean toward Santos, though not an overwhelming consensus. Market pricing suggests Santos holds a meaningful advantage, likely driven by team form, recent head-to-head records, or current squad composition. The outcome will be determined when the two teams play, which will definitively resolve whether Santos' market-implied edge translates to an actual victory. Key uncertainties that could shift probabilities include injury updates to key players, team lineup announcements closer to match day, or late tactical information that signals different expected performance levels.

### Key factors

- Santos FC's current league standing and recent performance record compared to Recoleta FC's recent results
- Historical head-to-head outcomes between the two clubs and goal differential patterns in those matches
- Injury status or availability of key players for either squad that would materially affect expected performance
- Home/away venue dynamics if one team's home record substantially differs from their away record
- Market volume and contract pricing consistency—the 56% price on Polymarket shows $0 volume, suggesting limited recent trading depth

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.