# Will Baltimore have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 7 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/recordnflbest
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:02.615Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-22

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $450

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 7¢ | ±0 | $338 | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-have-the-best-regular-season-record-i-kalshi-kxrecordnflbest-27-buf |
| Dallas | 3¢ | −1pp | $94 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-have-the-best-regular-season-record-in-kalshi-kxrecordnflbest-27-dal |
| Philadelphia | 3¢ | +1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-philadelphia-have-the-best-regular-season-rec-kalshi-kxrecordnflbest-27-phi |
| New England | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-have-the-best-regular-season-reco-kalshi-kxrecordnflbest-27-ne |
| Denver | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-denver-have-the-best-regular-season-record-in-kalshi-kxrecordnflbest-27-den |
| Baltimore | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-have-the-best-regular-season-record-kalshi-kxrecordnflbest-27-bal |
| Detroit | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-have-the-best-regular-season-record-i-kalshi-kxrecordnflbest-27-det |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | 4 |
| 2026-04-19 | 4 |
| 2026-04-26 | 5 |
| 2026-05-02 | 3 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Detroit −8pp 10→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Detroit +6pp 2→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Detroit −4pp 6→2¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that the Baltimore Orioles will finish the 2026-27 MLB regular season with the best record in baseball. At 6%, the market reflects skepticism about Baltimore achieving this outcome, suggesting traders view other franchises as more competitive. The assessment likely weighs Baltimore's recent performance trajectory, roster composition, and competitive positioning within the American League East. Key factors driving the current probability include the strength of competing teams—particularly the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, who show higher implied probabilities—and Baltimore's historical consistency relative to division rivals. The main resolution point will be the conclusion of the 2026-27 regular season schedule, when final win-loss records determine the outcome. Market movements could shift substantially based on upcoming offseason transactions, spring training performance, and early-season results that signal roster strength and coaching effectiveness.

### Key factors

- Baltimore's implied win probability (6%) significantly lags Los Angeles (29%) and New York (14%), indicating the market perceives Baltimore as the third-strongest challenger in the AL East
- Historical regular season performance of Baltimore versus AL East rivals and other MLB teams establishes baseline expectations for record quality
- Offseason roster moves, free agent acquisitions, and trades completed before the 2026-27 season will directly affect competitive position and win projections
- Early-season performance through the first month will provide empirical data to validate or contradict preseason expectations about team strength
- Injury status of key position players, pitchers, and management changes heading into the season represent concrete variables affecting win totals

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/recordnflbest
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=recordnflbest

## License

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