# Will Arizona have the worst regular season record in the 2026-27 season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 4 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/recordnflworst
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.637Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-22

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $442

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 22¢ | −3pp | $264 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-have-the-worst-regular-season-record-in-kalshi-kxrecordnflworst-27-mia |
| Arizona | 20¢ | +4pp | $107 | kalshi | /markets/will-arizona-have-the-worst-regular-season-record-kalshi-kxrecordnflworst-27-ari |
| Las Vegas | 6¢ | −1pp | $72 | kalshi | /markets/will-las-vegas-have-the-worst-regular-season-recor-kalshi-kxrecordnflworst-27-lv |
| Cleveland | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cleveland-have-the-worst-regular-season-recor-kalshi-kxrecordnflworst-27-cle |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | 11 |
| 2026-04-25 | 20 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17 |
| 2026-05-06 | 20 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Arizona +4pp 16→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Miami −3pp 25→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 14% chance that Arizona finishes the 2026-27 baseball season with the worst record in the league. The probability reflects expectations about Arizona's roster strength, management decisions, and competitive positioning relative to other potentially weak teams. Key drivers include whether Arizona actively rebuilds or attempts competitiveness, how their drafted prospects develop, and injuries to core players. The 2026-27 season will run from late March through September 2027, with the final standings determined after all regular season games conclude. Arizona's actual performance will depend on offseason acquisitions, player health, and how their pitching staff performs relative to other struggling teams in the league. Comparative probabilities show St. Louis and New York M currently face lower odds of worst-record finishes, suggesting Arizona is viewed as moderately vulnerable but not the consensus weakest team.

### Key factors

- Arizona's offseason roster moves and payroll commitments relative to rebuilding teams
- Injury status of Arizona's key position players and starting pitchers heading into spring training 2027
- Performance trajectory of Arizona's minor league prospects and whether they're ready for MLB contributions
- Quality of Arizona's managerial and front office decision-making compared to other potentially weak franchises
- Trade activity at the 2026 deadline—whether Arizona sells veterans or attempts mid-season competitiveness

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/recordnflworst
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=recordnflworst

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.