# Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA River Plate - More Markets: CA River Plate (-1.5)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 20 contracts — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/red-bull-bragantino-vs-ca-river-plate-more-markets-ca-river
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:52.586Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 40% / Polymarket 20% — 20pp spread
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| River Plate | 62¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/river-plate-vs-tucuman-winner-river-plate-kalshi-kxargpremdivgame-26may03rivtuc-riv |
| Nongshim Red Force | 28¢ | +8pp | $244 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may040700nsdk-ns |
| Top Constructor?: Red Bull Racing | 19¢ | +5pp | $243 | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-constructor-red-bull-racing-kalshi-kxf1topconstructor-miagp26-red |
| Dplus KIA | 65¢ | +24pp | $177 | kalshi | /markets/will-dplus-kia-win-the-nongshim-red-force-vs-dplus-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may040700nsdk-dk |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 47¢ | +3pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-chapecoense-totals-over-25-goals-sco-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03charbb-2 |
| Winner: Red Bull Bragantino | 3¢ | +4pp | $50 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-a-winner-red-bull-bragantino-polymarket-0x958687ce0e99db0e009ce12d79968463abc8de02777e77a27013eb945737f780 |
| Dplus KIA | 58¢ | +14pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-dplus-kia-win-map-1-in-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may040700nsdk-1-dk |
| Nongshim Red Force | 13¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may060400nsgen-ns |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 11¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-chapecoense-totals-over-45-goals-sco-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03charbb-4 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 73¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-chapecoense-totals-over-15-goals-sco-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03charbb-1 |
| Nongshim Red Force | 36¢ | +29pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-map-1-in-the-nongshim-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may040700nsdk-1-ns |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 40¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-santos-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10sanrbb-2 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 53¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-santos-totals-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10sanrbb-1 |
| Draw (CA Platense vs. CA Peñarol) | 31¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-platense-vs-ca-pearol-draw-ca-platense-vs-ca-pe-polymarket-0x83e1e8b48e5cbd9a67de1aeb92a920084724647602b973c01660e79bf6503801 |
| CA Peñarol | 25¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-platense-vs-ca-pearol-ca-pearol-polymarket-0x2109d65fad35e9780cf8e0dd4fcee301c255878907cdd6a08a3e89433b4de6b4 |
| Gen.G | 64¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-geng-win-map-1-in-the-nongshim-red-force-vs-g-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may060400nsgen-1-gen |
| Gen.G | 71¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-geng-win-map-2-in-the-nongshim-red-force-vs-g-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may060400nsgen-2-gen |
| Over 2.5 maps | 27¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-maps-be-played-in-the-nongshim-red-fo-kalshi-kxloltotalmaps-26may060400nsgen-3 |
| Nongshim Red Force | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-map-1-in-the-nongshim-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may060400nsgen-1-ns |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-santos-totals-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10sanrbb-4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 14 |
| 2026-05-03 | 34 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored +36pp 32→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Nongshim Red Force +29pp 4→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored +26pp 17→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Winner: Red Bull Bragantino −26pp 36→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Winner: Red Bull Bragantino +25pp 11→36¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/red-bull-bragantino-vs-ca-river-plate-more-markets-ca-river
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=red-bull-bragantino-vs-ca-river-plate-more-markets-ca-river

## License

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