# Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 20 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/red-bull-bragantino-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-se
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:22.546Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 54% / Polymarket 28% — 26pp spread
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 runs scored | 54¢ | +1pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/baltimore-vs-new-york-y-total-runs-over-85-runs-sc-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031335balnyy-9 |
| CS Cristal (-2.5) | 3¢ | −4pp | $306 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-cs-cristal-polymarket-0xd13fc202d6d76cf340266a832e92de3e9fa469d965718c50218e8c92b8b530fc |
| Winner: Red Bull Bragantino | 4¢ | +4pp | $50 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-a-winner-red-bull-bragantino-polymarket-0x958687ce0e99db0e009ce12d79968463abc8de02777e77a27013eb945737f780 |
| SE Palmeiras (-1.5) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-se-palmeir-polymarket-0x32804cd439c1bfca4c202fce84583e79a3c404f6c6991c23b68fdb2698372971 |
| O/U 3.5 | 26¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x1ae4fa2b0e1cebe32000a741ec07dc113ec3cbc71d668d9f2ebf47f090557485 |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5) | 12¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xf874fea23e2749a660cf3f2d2f1b359d0e892dad6460eba65a6fb5b54c532d7f |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-both-teams-polymarket-0x8b5451274c64477bcff83d70ee4344ff92dc476aa0d1b1ee30f39bdade2aa1df |
| O/U 3.5 | 26¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x53c14f110455aa30b1baf8ecadf89cb258aa7ea917f853b89774c464acbe56ac |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x8c771d9b5ed14085fc1ecfaa14fc44e10b34e74333cd7ee161efeb124e340d08 |
| Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5) | 23¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x13fca10ff23581e6dd606f11f66f4c391c6466503af462fce73756afe0c09be2 |
| O/U 1.5 | 73¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x7b3618cc383dee32b5928783e21910b64d9ee9e8871dccdbe77b4683d145b693 |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x6c1549b4f18c127ba75daebe83e34495d6143b3c1255994e597bb51932b9222e |
| SE Palmeiras (-2.5) | 15¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-se-palmeir-polymarket-0x56031e4fd8f85ab1ef6acfe6bf455fa80486505d672c7fa32ade47ef005c4746 |
| O/U 1.5 | 73¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xde55263f4843ff39efeba08884e6e92b2af80fddf4ce93586dc5b12736b29dbc |
| CS Cristal (-1.5) | 8¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-cs-cristal-polymarket-0xfaa9e3aad297692328fb6209ca47781ac3957e835eda579a113bd8745f22cc5a |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x137a07a40c862c48fa20e4bf0903615799188d89173bc6a02ef8f36908f75c60 |
| Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5) | 12¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xadcf744a9640a6e377fe9053eb64b43a37dba200eb2040bcd1e199d9e34df821 |
| Both Teams to Score | 53¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x1083aaebb1ee5fc7669e00ffbd7f30b223c37ffbf72564e37c39f9b5fd9404fd |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xddd281fea164268b7a430b9b264ba88f9c5927b2e82311c6c8d976912a063d6c |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5) | 10¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xc60a6d5f37835d039139ee7a805003c7133a8aeb3a9aeb4c1c0175e32981d8a2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 5 |
| 2026-05-03 | 30 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-30 · Winner: Red Bull Bragantino −26pp 36→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Winner: Red Bull Bragantino +25pp 11→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5) −8pp 37→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · CS Cristal (-1.5) +8pp 11→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · Winner: Red Bull Bragantino +6pp 5→11¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/red-bull-bragantino-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-se
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=red-bull-bragantino-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-se

## License

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