# Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 20 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/red-bull-bragantino-vs-se-palmeiras
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:05:57.021Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 34% / Polymarket 37% — 3pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Constructor?: Red Bull Racing | 27¢ | +5pp | $378 | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-constructor-red-bull-racing-kalshi-kxf1topconstructor-miagp26-red |
| Dplus KIA | 68¢ | +24pp | $347 | kalshi | /markets/will-dplus-kia-win-the-nongshim-red-force-vs-dplus-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may040700nsdk-dk |
| Nongshim Red Force | 23¢ | +8pp | $340 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may040700nsdk-ns |
| Nongshim Red Force | 12¢ | — | $157 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may060400nsgen-ns |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 47¢ | +3pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-chapecoense-totals-over-25-goals-sco-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03charbb-2 |
| Dplus KIA | 58¢ | +14pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-dplus-kia-win-map-1-in-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may040700nsdk-1-dk |
| CS Cristal | 18¢ | −1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-cs-cristal-polymarket-0xcc6e978759b03f8cc18b374fd767dcfaa61e66cbcedf054d21b00cb7080e748e |
| SE Palmeiras | 56¢ | +1pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-se-palmeiras-polymarket-0x8920182cecfb34ea2d774a1aa2a5b52201378321e5d6e07d0b177e71b6c77576 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 11¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-chapecoense-totals-over-45-goals-sco-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03charbb-4 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 73¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-chapecoense-totals-over-15-goals-sco-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03charbb-1 |
| Nongshim Red Force | 35¢ | +29pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-map-1-in-the-nongshim-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may040700nsdk-1-ns |
| Gen.G | 68¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-geng-win-map-1-in-the-nongshim-red-force-vs-g-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may060400nsgen-1-gen |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-santos-totals-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10sanrbb-4 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 42¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/palmeiras-at-remo-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10crpal-2 |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/palmeiras-at-remo-totals-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10crpal-3 |
| Nongshim Red Force | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-map-2-in-the-nongshim-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may060400nsgen-2-ns |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-santos-totals-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10sanrbb-3 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 40¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-santos-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10sanrbb-2 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/palmeiras-at-remo-totals-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10crpal-4 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 53¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-santos-totals-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10sanrbb-1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 17 |
| 2026-05-03 | 32 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored +36pp 32→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Nongshim Red Force +29pp 4→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored +26pp 17→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Dplus KIA +24pp 31→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Dplus KIA +14pp 31→45¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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