# Will Red Bull Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -10%

> Above -10% leads at 94%, runner-up 93% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/redbullpos
Updated: 2026-08-27T09:20:49.371Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above -10% at 94%
- Runner-up: Above -6% at 93%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $310

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -10% | 94¢ | +90pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-red-bull-point-of-sale-growth-for-august-2026-kalshi-kxredbullpos-26sep07-t-10 |
| Above -6% | 93¢ | +89pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-red-bull-point-of-sale-growth-for-august-2026-kalshi-kxredbullpos-26sep07-t-6 |
| Above -2% | 88¢ | +5pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-red-bull-point-of-sale-growth-for-august-2026-kalshi-kxredbullpos-26sep07-t-2 |
| Above 2% | 49¢ | +6pp | $205 | kalshi | /markets/will-red-bull-point-of-sale-growth-for-august-2026-kalshi-kxredbullpos-26sep07-t2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -10% | Above -6% | Above -2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | 95 | 90 | 59 |
| 2026-08-20 | 50 | 52 | 39 |
| 2026-08-26 | 95 | 93 | 84 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-24 · Above -10% +93pp 2→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Above -10% −90pp 95→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · Above -10% +90pp 5→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · Above -6% +89pp 4→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Above -6% −60pp 64→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 93% probability that Red Bull's point-of-sale growth for August 2026 will remain above -10%, meaning sales are unlikely to fall by more than 10% year-over-year. The high confidence reflects expectations that Red Bull will experience modest declines at worst rather than severe contraction. Contract pricing shows traders see a meaningful distinction between the -10% threshold (93% likely) and -6% (89% likely), suggesting the central outlook clusters around -8% to -7% decline. The main drivers are competitive energy drink pricing pressure, consumer spending patterns in August, and broader beverage category trends. Resolution will depend on Red Bull's official point-of-sale data release for August, typically reported within weeks of month-end. The tight clustering of probabilities across thresholds indicates limited conviction about whether declines will be shallow or moderate.

### Key factors

- Contract pricing spreads (-10% at 95¢ versus -2% at 56¢) imply traders expect August decline between -5% and -8%, not collapse or growth
- Zero 24-hour trading volume on the -10%, -6%, and +2% contracts suggests the market view has stabilized with minimal recent conviction shifts
- August seasonality and consumer spending patterns will drive whether Red Bull's year-over-year comparison falls within normal variance or signals deeper demand issues
- Resolution depends on official point-of-sale data release; timing and granularity of that disclosure will determine settlement certainty
- The 4-percentage-point gap between -10% (93%) and -6% (89%) thresholds shows material uncertainty about whether weakness stays shallow or accelerates

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/redbullpos
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=redbullpos

## License

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