# Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 65%, runner-up 53% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:13.496Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 65%
- Runner-up: O/U 2.5 at 53%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x303510bcb696aba478484a929f96eb9bf76361a3140c8c6f2032dfad8c073c8a |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x03536323a1a8f83abdf45667871bd0f123440908e6f273e298292df61148ec63 |
| Both Teams to Score | 50¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x32de6b71e8be134fa22c6cd98215d5a6aea943283af791854d029622c915ada9 |
| Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-2.5) | 34¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-r-polymarket-0xaaeaf2cfb3eb39e114b42dd4dc45970dcd84501e1848e33fcde5cf933f6f2a40 |
| O/U 3.5 | 34¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xae5a2b87d29499e06bc927e017f1f5c9df30ba4b3799e5ceb7b69126c1ff2d40 |
| Reilac Shiga (-1.5) | 33¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-r-polymarket-0x0f5665c225149dbe84afa4e40a1bd581aee9d37ee89f4e53a31e4ebf9371f01a |
| Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-r-polymarket-0xd7af9502399881d796357dd1c2f135082cb1f7e26bdbcfc217a11880009bfee6 |
| Reilac Shiga (-2.5) | 32¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-r-polymarket-0xdd3092e342d7ec1e30755e4b3aef3551cbc790635a037482ad92955c4e8c9e74 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x9129c6d9f9cbd07b3b06194bcc629b0b120ddf7c729b3d48340cb9adb17bdb55 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | O/U 2.5 | Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-2.5) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 61 | — | 35 |
| 2026-05-03 | 61 | 54 | 38 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Reilac Shiga (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-1.5) +3pp 33→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-2.5) +3pp 35→38¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents traders' assessment that Reilac Shiga will win their match against Renofa Yamaguchi FC, with the leading market price at 50%. The current probability reflects relatively balanced market positioning, though volume across related football markets remains modest at under $400 per contract. Match outcome depends primarily on team form, recent injury status, and head-to-head historical performance. The key resolution event is the scheduled match date, which will determine the final winner. Trading interest appears light compared to major football leagues, suggesting limited historical data or market familiarity may be influencing price discovery. Shifts in this probability would likely follow team news, lineup announcements, or significant odds movement at major sportsbooks before kickoff.

### Key factors

- Leading market price of 50% reflects relatively even odds rather than consensus favoritism for either team
- Daily trading volume remains under $400 across contracts, indicating thin liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
- Polymarket contracts show material price divergence (ranging from 4¢ to 67¢ across top listed contracts), suggesting market fragmentation or distinct underlying events priced
- No clear favoritism exists between the leading contract (50%) and runner-up (38%), indicating genuine uncertainty among traders
- Match outcome is determined solely by final result on the scheduled event date with no interim resolution possible

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets

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