# Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC

> Reilac Shiga leads at 50%, runner-up 36% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:05:51.054Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Reilac Shiga at 50%
- Runner-up: Renofa Yamaguchi FC at 36%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reilac Shiga | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-reilac-shiga-polymarket-0x6e16efb90d61db052428897a4bb259a4e7cdeafb3f78c51e9aa942bbac811cf2 |
| Renofa Yamaguchi FC | 36¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-renofa-yamaguc-polymarket-0x7b995500bba09d32d5b82847dbd3ab7597a41ffebfd6a6f1e2a5ee2b5eff5972 |
| Draw (Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC) | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-draw-reilac-sh-polymarket-0x164ec0b51bc7d1d5f554122da787da06e8ed8f2b787968b7a8b536dd45e64d6f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Reilac Shiga | Renofa Yamaguchi FC | Draw (Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | — | 41 | 39 |
| 2026-05-02 | 48 | 40 | 39 |
| 2026-05-03 | 47 | — | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Reilac Shiga has a 47% chance of winning this matchup against Renofa Yamaguchi FC. The probability reflects relatively balanced competitive expectations between the two teams, with the market assigning meaningful probability to both a Reilac Shiga victory and a Renofa Yamaguchi FC win at 40%. The contract volume across related markets (over/under totals, handicap lines, draw outcomes) suggests uncertainty about match dynamics—whether the game will be low-scoring or feature goals from both sides. The 47% leader probability indicates neither team is heavily favored. Key considerations driving the odds likely include recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and home-field advantage if applicable. The actual match result will resolve all uncertainty around this outcome.

### Key factors

- Reilac Shiga is priced as a slight favorite at 47% versus Renofa Yamaguchi FC at 40%, with 13% probability allocated to a draw
- Over/Under 1.5 goals prices highest at 61¢, while Over/Under 2.5 sits at 53¢, suggesting market expects low-to-moderate scoring
- Handicap contract pricing Reilac Shiga at -1.5 goals at 38¢ indicates skepticism about a decisive victory margin for either side
- Both Teams to Score contract at 50¢ reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the match will feature goals from both teams
- Zero 24-hour volume across all listed contracts suggests limited recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc

## License

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