# Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch — $900M

> $100M leads at 64%, runner-up 45% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.331Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $100M at 64%
- Runner-up: $300M at 45%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $86

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 64¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0xc9f02df8613beff1bfd7fd9536f0eca2e3db5f3b5052e9f7ea44627da2ef2a1e |
| $300M | 45¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0x3bef83e71dffc4240584e748b3aeb6eb0369f0c2a6e9512eef3bdc349a74865f |
| $600M | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-600m-polymarket-0x5ea3bfa0c978191b52596309368f6de493fd107922299291fa869590033345b5 |
| $500M | 28¢ | +2pp | $45 | polymarket | /markets/relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0x1d80725b371d70e726f29bf536218aea076b7d67e9058a24462b061c04f277b2 |
| $900M | 27¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-900m-polymarket-0xc31c1da1e110fcc40b6e17ffb4b56f3311ab933da01b36eae4f79b9c20d329e2 |
| $800M | 26¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-800m-polymarket-0x37ca4ebab4b629208249269b8d51fd15639270f1fb7fbbc8a6154b521fe6bfd6 |
| $700M | 20¢ | ±0 | $42 | polymarket | /markets/relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-700m-polymarket-0xcd47be9959a64cbad1646f3c56d0f699f332c27711f88c71a4045597c51fc772 |
| $1B | 14¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0x1f1b08697ee34df255b5d3ef37700628274b7853dca0079fd2c625e426ec57c2 |
| $1.2B | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-12b-polymarket-0xadadc25e22d384c67f8246c65bd0384403d1c85696cf6877dce9769c659abdfe |
| $1.5B | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-15b-polymarket-0xd3418d802705364c542cedb26f665d75b9dceac7a0377490511cf631e6dddaed |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $100M | $300M | $600M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 39 | 30 |
| 2026-04-10 | 46 | 38 | 20 |
| 2026-04-25 | 50 | 34 | 20 |
| 2026-05-02 | 57 | 30 | 32 |
| 2026-05-08 | 66 | 46 | 33 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · $1B +20pp 32→52¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · $700M −17pp 48→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $900M −17pp 46→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $1.5B −14pp 19→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $300M +12pp 38→50¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market assesses the probability that Relay will have a fully diluted valuation above $900 million one day after its launch. The 58% probability reflects moderately bullish positioning, suggesting traders see this as more likely than not but with meaningful downside risk. The valuation hinges on Relay's initial token pricing, market demand at launch, and broader crypto market conditions on launch day. The outcome will be determined immediately once the token begins trading and price discovery occurs. Related projects show mixed expectations: similar-tier projects are priced for $500-800M valuations by traders, while less mature projects target lower thresholds, suggesting uncertainty about where Relay specifically will land. Market movement will largely depend on launch timing announcement and pre-launch momentum.

### Key factors

- Relay's token launch date and pre-launch marketing intensity will directly influence initial trading volume and price discovery speed
- Comparable project valuations on Polymarket ($500M-$800M thresholds showing 17-44% implied probability) suggest $900M represents an above-consensus outcome
- Broader crypto market sentiment on launch day significantly impacts token valuations; Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility will create conditions either supporting or constraining upside
- The $900M threshold sits above the mode of related project expectations but below the $1B+ targets some traders price at 17% probability, indicating genuine disagreement on execution quality

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=relay-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.