# Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season

> A new location in Illinois leads at 60%, runner-up 31% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/relocationchi
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.918Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2028-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: A new location in Illinois at 60%
- Runner-up: Indiana at 31%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A new location in Illinois | 60¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-chicago-pro-football-team-relocate-to-a-n-kalshi-kxrelocationchi-28-ill |
| Indiana | 31¢ | −3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-chicago-pro-football-team-relocate-to-ind-kalshi-kxrelocationchi-28-ind |
| Do not relocate or announce a relocation | 5¢ | ±0 | $995 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-chicago-pro-football-team-not-relocateann-kalshi-kxrelocationchi-28-remain |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | A new location in Illinois | Indiana | Do not relocate or announce a relocation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 58 | 37 | — |
| 2026-05-31 | 53 | 41 | 2 |
| 2026-06-12 | 42 | 45 | 5 |
| 2026-06-19 | 48 | 41 | 6 |
| 2026-06-26 | 60 | 32 | 6 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Indiana −7pp 40→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Indiana −5pp 44→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · A new location in Illinois +3pp 51→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · A new location in Illinois +3pp 56→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Indiana −3pp 44→41¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 74% probability that the Chicago professional football team will relocate to another Illinois location before the 2028 season begins. The high probability reflects either significant reported movement toward relocation, announced plans, or stated intentions by team ownership or municipal officials. The market would shift downward if relocation discussions stall, new stadium deals are finalized in Chicago, or ownership signals commitment to remaining. Key catalysts include any formal relocation announcement, completion of stadium financing negotiations, or municipal zoning and development approvals. The relatively modest trading volume suggests limited market participation, which typically indicates either low mainstream attention or concentrated positions among specialized traders following this specific outcome.

### Key factors

- Public statements or formal announcements from team ownership regarding relocation timelines and target locations
- Status of current stadium lease agreements and any renegotiation outcomes in Chicago proper
- Municipal and state government approvals or zoning changes enabling stadium development at potential alternate Illinois sites
- Financing announcements for stadium construction or acquisition at candidate relocation sites
- NFL approval requirements and timeline for any proposed team relocation within league governance

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/relocationchi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=relocationchi

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.