# Renofa Yamaguchi FC vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki - More Markets: O/U 3.5

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/renofa-yamaguchi-fc-vs-tegevajaro-miyazaki-more-markets-ou
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:20:14.662Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 71%
- Runner-up: O/U 2.5 at 45%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $63

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 71¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/renofa-yamaguchi-fc-vs-tegevajaro-miyazaki-more-ma-polymarket-0x3b59610b83e7d5d635ba462eb0a7594b496b7772316724d241613f9e2367615b |
| O/U 2.5 | 45¢ | −2pp | $63 | polymarket | /markets/renofa-yamaguchi-fc-vs-tegevajaro-miyazaki-more-ma-polymarket-0xeba7156fb357ad75b9ce5afeae315b2ca8c49732d23015f8f7c2ac31c04b4b3b |
| O/U 3.5 | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/renofa-yamaguchi-fc-vs-tegevajaro-miyazaki-more-ma-polymarket-0xdfc3314460bb99a45e925bcddad12e337399f85f49f8ce148eb6067db5fb03f8 |
| O/U 4.5 | 10¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/renofa-yamaguchi-fc-vs-tegevajaro-miyazaki-more-ma-polymarket-0xca7748e7f50f1d4ae94f3b07e578ffd5a9e02c2db79d86c7843c60cba28d67e5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | O/U 2.5 | O/U 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 65 | 53 | 31 |
| 2026-05-07 | 65 | 53 | 37 |
| 2026-05-08 | 67 | 46 | 21 |
| 2026-05-09 | 71 | 44 | 22 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · O/U 3.5 −16pp 37→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 4.5 −12pp 24→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · O/U 2.5 −7pp 53→46¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 3.5 +6pp 31→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · O/U 1.5 +4pp 67→71¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects the probability that a J2 League match between Renofa Yamaguchi FC and Tegevajaro Miyazaki will end with at least 2 total goals scored. The 60% price on the under-1.5 goals contract suggests market participants view a low-scoring outcome as more likely than a higher-scoring one. Current pricing across the goal-total ladder—with under-2.5 at 54% and under-3.5 at 36%—indicates scattered confidence; traders appear uncertain whether matches between these teams tend toward 0–1 goals or 2–3 goals. The match outcome itself will resolve all four contracts once the final whistle sounds. Recent form, defensive capabilities, and attacking efficiency of both sides would be primary factors shifting probabilities before kickoff.

### Key factors

- J2 League fixture between lower-ranked sides, where defensive solidity and limited offensive output are typical; historical goal averages for each team provide baseline expectations
- Current 24-hour trading volume is zero across all four contracts, indicating thin liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that may not reflect deep conviction
- Renofa Yamaguchi and Tegevajaro Miyazaki's recent head-to-head records, season goal differential, and injury status directly influence scoring likelihood
- The spread between under-1.5 (60%), under-2.5 (54%), and under-3.5 (36%) suggests moderate disagreement about whether 2 goals or 3+ goals is the true inflection point
- Match date and time are essential: time-of-day factors, weather conditions, and playoff/promotion implications (if applicable) could shift defensive urgency

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/renofa-yamaguchi-fc-vs-tegevajaro-miyazaki-more-markets-ou
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=renofa-yamaguchi-fc-vs-tegevajaro-miyazaki-more-markets-ou

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