# Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 59% across 3 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/reproductivemeasures
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.759Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 59% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Question 6 | 91¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nevada-question-6-right-to-abortion-initiativ-kalshi-kxreproductivemeasures-26-nv |
| Virginia HJR 1 | 82¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-virginia-right-to-reproductive-freedom-am-kalshi-kxreproductivemeasures-26-va |
| Missouri Amendment 3 | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-missouri-amendment-3-in-missouri-pass-missour-kalshi-kxreproductivemeasures-26-mo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 87 |
| 2026-04-16 | 91 |
| 2026-04-28 | 5 |
| 2026-04-29 | 82 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Nevada Question 6 is a ballot initiative that would enshrine abortion access rights in the state constitution. At 59% probability, the prediction indicates near-even odds that the measure will receive sufficient voter support to pass. Abortion rights initiatives have shown strong performance in recent ballot measures across various states, though Nevada's specific political composition and voter enthusiasm relative to this cycle will determine outcomes. The probability reflects uncertainty around voter turnout patterns, demographic shifts since the last election, and how abortion access resonates as a voting issue in 2026 compared to recent cycles. The November 2026 general election will definitively resolve this measure, with results dependent on actual votes cast rather than polling alone.

### Key factors

- Recent abortion-related ballot measures in other states have passed at higher rates than historical ballot initiatives, suggesting voter appetite for abortion rights protections
- Nevada's current voter registration trends and expected 2026 turnout composition compared to 2024 will significantly impact passage odds
- Polling data on Nevada voter support for constitutional abortion rights amendments, if available, versus the current 59% market probability
- Republican gubernatorial and legislative performance in Nevada could influence voter mood and turnout patterns affecting down-ballot measures
- The measure's specific language and any official fiscal or implementation details that shape voter perception of the initiative

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/reproductivemeasures
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=reproductivemeasures

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