# Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/republican-presidential-nominee-2028
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.355Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $21K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis | 3¢ | −2pp | $21K | polymarket | /markets/republican-presidential-nominee-2028-ron-desantis-polymarket-0x64d31a2af85518c6718a5757a35b840f08eca20c1e22c0eb1e96ec01cc55b8b6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 3 |
| 2026-05-20 | 5 |
| 2026-06-01 | 3 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Marco Rubio is priced at 21% probability to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, reflecting market expectations that he faces meaningful but not dominant odds against other potential candidates. This estimate is shaped primarily by his current position as Secretary of State, which provides visibility and establishment credibility but may constrain his ability to campaign actively. The nomination process typically hinges on early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, scheduled for early 2028, where candidate performance and momentum often reshape expectations significantly. Key uncertainty exists around whether other figures—including those currently less visible in markets—might consolidate support or withdraw from contention as the primary season approaches, materially altering the distribution of probabilities among remaining candidates.

### Key factors

- Rubio's Cabinet position provides institutional platform but limits independent campaigning compared to full-time candidates
- Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary in early 2028 will be decisive testing grounds; early primary results historically shift nomination odds substantially
- No single candidate commands majority probability; the second-place finisher trades at 8%, indicating fragmented field and potential for support consolidation
- Candidate withdrawals or entries between now and voting could redistribute the 79% probability assigned to non-Rubio outcomes
- Market pricing reflects limited historical precedent for sitting Secretary of State securing their party's nomination without prior gubernatorial or Senate voting record

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/republican-presidential-nominee-2028
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=republican-presidential-nominee-2028
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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