# Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July

> No Change leads at 62%, runner-up 42% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-july
Updated: 2026-05-09T08:20:27.904Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-07

## Headline

- Leader: No Change at 62%
- Runner-up: Increase at 42%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 62¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-july-no-ch-polymarket-0xf2db8d9fe4f73562ad066daaa6c38a561b44de0e3a44d4403d1645298f58eb71 |
| Increase | 42¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-july-incre-polymarket-0x6f8f6213493598ad65271b758d16c5df84c263f20fd30e0cbf81b01ef884ff8d |
| Decrease | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-july-decre-polymarket-0x8e2d06f176611eeaa0acc0df6375a77341a8ed0de385000357a1f5c3b4d50a68 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | No Change | Increase | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 34 | 57 | 6 |
| 2026-05-02 | 34 | 57 | 6 |
| 2026-05-09 | 61 | 41 | 11 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Increase −22pp 53→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · No Change +17pp 37→54¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Decrease +11pp 7→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Increase +8pp 31→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Decrease −7pp 18→11¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rates in July 2026. At 53%, the market views a rate cut as slightly more likely than not, but genuine uncertainty remains. The RBNZ's decision hinges primarily on inflation trends and labor market conditions in the months leading up to July. If inflation continues cooling toward the bank's 2% target and unemployment rises, downward pressure on rates increases; conversely, persistent price pressures or wage growth could support rates holding steady. The official RBNZ monetary policy decision in early July will resolve this outcome. Market participants are monitoring May and June inflation data releases and employment reports as key signals of the central bank's likely stance.

### Key factors

- New Zealand CPI inflation trajectory from April through June 2026, relative to the RBNZ's 1-3% target band
- Labour market weakness or employment growth signals that might justify earlier rate cuts versus sustained demand
- Global interest rate environment, particularly Fed policy decisions and commodity price movements affecting NZD
- RBNZ forward guidance and communications in May-June statements prior to the July meeting
- Wage growth data and inflation expectations from business and household surveys in the lead-up to the decision

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-july
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-july

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.