# RFK Akhmat Groznyi vs. FK Dinamo Makhachkala - More Markets: FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-1.5)

> FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-1.5) leads at 11%, runner-up 6% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-markets-fk
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.242Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Leader: FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-1.5) at 11%
- Runner-up: FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-2.5) at 6%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-1.5) | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-m-polymarket-0xf8e1a515400a48e0b524d11f271b3d1519a62ddf824dc7da9930715cf5b22ce9 |
| FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-2.5) | 6¢ | −1pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-m-polymarket-0x81ea912af8e5d1241768ec5baebe8c941ae234477fb53ef08dfdf55bfbc17e31 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-1.5) | FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-2.5) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 12 | 12 |
| 2026-05-07 | 12 | 11 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 10 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 12% probability that FK Dinamo Makhachkala will win by 1.5 goals or more against RFK Akhmat Groznyi in an upcoming fixture. The low probability reflects Akhmat's historically stronger position in Russian football, though Dinamo has shown competitive capability in recent seasons. The current pricing suggests market participants view Akhmat as a significant favorite, with Dinamo needing either a strong tactical advantage or Akhmat underperforming to achieve a 1.5+ goal margin victory. The resolution depends entirely on the match outcome when it is played. Key drivers include each team's recent form, head-to-head record, squad availability, and home-field advantage if applicable. Liquidity remains minimal across both contracts ($0 24h volume), indicating limited market depth and potential for price volatility if new information emerges about team lineups or conditions.

### Key factors

- RFK Akhmat Groznyi's league position and historical performance record compared to FK Dinamo Makhachkala in the Russian football system
- FK Dinamo Makhachkala's recent form trend and goal differential over the last 5-10 matches entering this fixture
- Head-to-head historical results between these two clubs, including whether Dinamo has previously won by 1.5+ goals
- Squad injury status and player availability for both teams at time of match, particularly key offensive or defensive players
- Match venue (home/away status for each team) and whether either team has a significant home-field advantage

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-markets-fk
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-markets-fk

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