# RFK Akhmat Groznyi vs. FK Dinamo Makhachkala - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 66%, runner-up 47% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:25.052Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 66%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 47%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 66¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-m-polymarket-0x0bc732b3dc44ccf388e3e20e61ffce504f1d1cb9715bc187f0e04d8ed74cb1ec |
| Both Teams to Score | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-m-polymarket-0x5e8df0943f0f2fd3a9da1b2ad59e9946e69a02d1e2e1912e6da6b33979837c0f |
| O/U 2.5 | 38¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-m-polymarket-0xad89b51ae41de9d72e9e9ba823a285b47196c03f931693e579c0b48fe0003997 |
| RFK Akhmat Groznyi (-1.5) | 26¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-m-polymarket-0x6ffffbc5366e8cd886fb958112a10d4c37cb21482d2c717f1bf276d4ac59b3e6 |
| FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-1.5) | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-m-polymarket-0xf8e1a515400a48e0b524d11f271b3d1519a62ddf824dc7da9930715cf5b22ce9 |
| O/U 3.5 | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-m-polymarket-0x03c1cf058d0bfca712de433ee65d2a48ee990cef6c390e7e3b7e9da467f197d6 |
| O/U 4.5 | 19¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-m-polymarket-0x13c3e69be625e2e54c0b3a3c9750d0eeaca1b90d75e525cdb8225a8377e981b4 |
| RFK Akhmat Groznyi (-2.5) | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-m-polymarket-0xd73d1dd4ae1c95dd79fe07e4e027643bff6f5f23449f5ad0f4f794661bb31950 |
| FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-2.5) | 6¢ | −1pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-m-polymarket-0x81ea912af8e5d1241768ec5baebe8c941ae234477fb53ef08dfdf55bfbc17e31 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 61 | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 66 | 47 | 38 |
| 2026-05-08 | 66 | 47 | 39 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · O/U 1.5 +5pp 61→66¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · FK Dinamo Makhachkala (-2.5) −3pp 11→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 3.5 −3pp 22→19¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 47% probability indicates market participants assess a roughly even-odds likelihood that both RFK Akhmat Groznyi and FK Dinamo Makhachkala score in their upcoming match. This outcome markets from a Russian Premier League fixture, with secondary contracts pricing Akhmat's victory margins at lower probability (17% for -1.5, 14% for -2.5). The market reflects uncertainty about defensive solidity in this matchup—whether either team will keep a clean sheet shapes the primary resolution. The fixture itself, scheduled as a standard league match, will determine the outcome; injury status of key forwards and recent form in goal-scoring consistency would be the main drivers moving probability in either direction. Historical head-to-head scoring patterns and current-season offensive output for both clubs anchor expectations around goal-scoring likelihood.

### Key factors

- Recent scoring records: How many goals each team has averaged in their last 5-10 matches determines baseline expectations for offensive output
- Defensive vulnerability: Clean sheet frequency for both teams this season indicates likelihood of conceding; teams with weak defenses make 'both teams to score' more probable
- Fixture timing and context: Whether this is early/late season, mid-week fixture, or play-off stage affects intensity and tactical approach
- Head-to-head history: Previous meetings between these clubs establish patterns in relative competitiveness and typical goal distributions
- Squad availability: Absences of lead strikers or key defensive players would shift scoring probability for either or both teams

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-dinamo-makhachkala-more-markets

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