# RFK Akhmat Groznyi vs. FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod - More Markets: O/U 1.5

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 44% across 10 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-pari-nizhnii-novgorod-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:51:02.275Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-03

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Breach | 14¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-breach-win-the-boston-breach-vs-paris-kalshi-kxcodgame-26may031800bospar-bos |
| Paris Gentle Mates | 85¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-paris-gentle-mates-win-the-boston-breach-vs-p-kalshi-kxcodgame-26may031800bospar-par |
| Paris Gentle Mates | 57¢ | ±0 | $305 | kalshi | /markets/will-paris-gentle-mates-win-map-2-in-the-boston-br-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031800bospar-2-par |
| Boston Breach | 11¢ | −3pp | $248 | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-breach-win-map-1-in-the-boston-breach-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031800bospar-1-bos |
| Over 3.5 maps | 56¢ | −18pp | $145 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-maps-be-played-in-the-boston-breach-v-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031800bospar-4 |
| Boston Breach | 34¢ | +2pp | $68 | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-breach-win-map-2-in-the-boston-breach-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031800bospar-2-bos |
| Paris Gentle Mates | 67¢ | +1pp | $64 | kalshi | /markets/will-paris-gentle-mates-win-map-3-in-the-boston-br-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031800bospar-3-par |
| Paris Gentle Mates | 79¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paris-gentle-mates-win-map-1-in-the-boston-br-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031800bospar-1-par |
| Over 4.5 maps | 16¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-45-maps-be-played-in-the-boston-breach-v-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031800bospar-5 |
| Boston Breach | 24¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-breach-win-map-3-in-the-boston-breach-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031800bospar-3-bos |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 32 |
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 43 |
| 2026-05-03 | 39 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Over 3.5 maps +26pp 2→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Over 3.5 maps +18pp 28→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Over 3.5 maps −18pp 46→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Over 4.5 maps −14pp 17→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Paris Gentle Mates +13pp 54→67¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-pari-nizhnii-novgorod-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rfk-akhmat-groznyi-vs-fk-pari-nizhnii-novgorod-more-markets

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