# Will RFK Jr. be confirmed as HHS Secretary?

> Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 46%, runner-up 9% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rfk-hhs
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.185Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 46%
- Runner-up: Before Sep 1, 2026 at 9%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 46¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trumps-first-announced-labor-secretary-pick-b-kalshi-kxlaborsecconf-26-jan01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trumps-first-announced-labor-secretary-pick-b-kalshi-kxlaborsecconf-26-sep01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Sep 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | 34 |
| 2026-05-28 | 55 | 34 |
| 2026-06-11 | 50 | 17 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 17 |
| 2026-06-18 | 47 | 17 |
| 2026-06-19 | 48 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | 45 | 8 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Before Sep 1, 2026 −5pp 13→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Before Sep 1, 2026 −3pp 16→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

There is no live data on the status of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as an HHS Secretary nominee, as available prediction markets currently only track the potential confirmation of the first announced Labor Secretary. Market participants place a 60% probability on the Labor Secretary being confirmed before 2027, with those same markets viewing an immediate confirmation by July 2026 as unlikely at 4%.

### Key factors

- No HHS secretary market data
- Labor Secretary confirmation probability
- 60% chance for Labor Secretary by 2027
- Low near-term confirmation odds

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rfk-hhs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rfk-hhs

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.