# What will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. say during Health Subcommittee

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 3 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rfkmention
Updated: 2026-06-19T07:20:18.457Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 43¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-leaves-hhs-secretary-in-b-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-rfk |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 21¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-rfk |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 57¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-attend-any-white-house-pr-kalshi-kxwhpressbriefing-rfk |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 32 |
| 2026-06-05 | 45 |
| 2026-06-12 | 50 |
| 2026-06-18 | 51 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. +13pp 27→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. +7pp 40→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-14 · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. +5pp 47→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. −3pp 52→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-17 · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. −3pp 48→45¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's estimate that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will make a specific statement during an upcoming Health Subcommittee hearing. The current 38% level sits between two distinct viewpoints: Kalshi contracts averaging 45% suggest moderate confidence in the event occurring, while Polymarket contracts at 29% reflect greater skepticism. The divergence may reflect uncertainty about which specific statement qualifies, timing of the hearing, or RFK Jr.'s participation. The primary driver is whether a scheduled Health Subcommittee hearing occurs and whether RFK Jr. appears and speaks on expected topics related to his HHS role. Resolution depends on the hearing date and what constitutes a qualifying statement—factors that create the 16-percentage-point spread between venues.

### Key factors

- Scheduled date and confirmed participation of RFK Jr. in a Health Subcommittee hearing
- Definition of what constitutes a qualifying statement during testimony
- Volume differential between venues ($17,936 on Kalshi vs. $339 on Polymarket suggests unequal liquidity and potentially different market compositions
- Related contract pricing on RFK Jr.'s tenure at HHS (55¢ on Kalshi) may indicate underlying concerns about his continued role
- Absence of recent trading activity on some related contracts ($0 volume) suggests potential information gaps or low trader interest

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rfkmention
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rfkmention

## License

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