# Rhode Island Democratic Senate Primary Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 96% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rhode-island-democratic-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.726Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-08

## Headline

- Probability: 96% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Reed | 96¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rhode-island-democratic-senate-primary-winner-jack-polymarket-0x0714dc5c20ec9714b05d1e85e365fcb99b34a0b5261f01c3a8333c568e02abce |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 96 |
| 2026-04-25 | 93 |
| 2026-05-02 | 94 |
| 2026-05-07 | 95 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the expected likelihood that a specific candidate wins Rhode Island's Democratic Senate primary. The 95% assessment suggests one candidate holds a commanding position in the race, with limited uncertainty about the outcome. The current level is likely driven by candidate name recognition, organizational strength, or early polling data within the state. Key factors that could shift this probability include any shift in voter preferences before the primary election, changes in candidate endorsements or funding, or unexpected developments affecting candidate viability. The primary election date itself represents the critical catalyst that will resolve all uncertainty around this outcome, determining whether the frontrunner's current advantage translates into an actual victory. Until then, any new polling data, campaign developments, or demographic shifts among likely Democratic primary voters could cause meaningful repricing.

### Key factors

- Current polling or early voter preference data shows the leading candidate with substantial support relative to alternative candidates
- Candidate fundraising totals, organizational infrastructure, and endorsement patterns in Rhode Island Democratic circles
- Historical turnout and demographics of Rhode Island Democratic primary voters compared to general election electorates
- Any recent campaign developments, controversies, or withdrawal announcements affecting candidate viability
- Timing proximity to the actual primary election date and whether early/absentee voting has begun

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rhode-island-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rhode-island-democratic-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.