# Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress

> Below 193 leads at 22%, runner-up 13% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rhouseseats
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:49.055Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-01

## Headline

- Leader: Below 193 at 22%
- Runner-up: 198-202 at 13%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 193 | 22¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-193-seats-in-the-120-kalshi-kxrhouseseats-27-193 |
| 198-202 | 13¢ | +1pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-198-202-seats-in-the-kalshi-kxrhouseseats-27-200 |
| 203-207 | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-203-207-seats-in-the-kalshi-kxrhouseseats-27-205 |
| 193-197 | 10¢ | — | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-193-197-seats-in-the-kalshi-kxrhouseseats-27-195 |
| 208-212 | 9¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-208-212-seats-in-the-kalshi-kxrhouseseats-27-210 |
| 218-222 | 8¢ | +1pp | $242 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-218-222-seats-in-the-kalshi-kxrhouseseats-27-220 |
| 223-227 | 7¢ | ±0 | $228 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-223-227-seats-in-the-kalshi-kxrhouseseats-27-225 |
| 213-217 | 7¢ | −1pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-213-217-seats-in-the-kalshi-kxrhouseseats-27-215 |
| Above 237 | 3¢ | −1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-237-seats-in-the-120-kalshi-kxrhouseseats-27-237 |
| 228-232 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-win-228-232-seats-in-the-kalshi-kxrhouseseats-27-230 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Below 193 | 198-202 | 203-207 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 23 | 12 | 14 |
| 2026-06-05 | 24 | — | 12 |
| 2026-06-11 | 24 | — | — |
| 2026-06-19 | 23 | — | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 23 | — | — |
| 2026-06-22 | — | 13 | 13 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 31% chance Republicans will win exactly 193 seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The outcome depends on swing district dynamics and overall national sentiment toward the party in power. Current market pricing suggests the most likely outcome clusters elsewhere—markets show higher odds for Republicans winning the House overall (19¢) but at different seat counts, indicating uncertainty about the final distribution. The November 2026 election will provide the definitive result. Key drivers include economic conditions heading into the midterms, approval ratings, and turnout patterns in competitive districts. The closest comparison on these markets shows the 223-227 seat range trading at lower odds, suggesting markets view 193 seats as a relatively underwhelming outcome for Republicans compared to historical norms for opposition parties in midterms.

### Key factors

- The overall Republican House win probability (19¢) is higher than this specific 193-seat outcome, indicating markets expect larger Republican gains if they win control
- The 223-227 seat contract trades significantly lower (3¢), suggesting markets view 193 as a below-expected seat count compared to other possible Republican outcomes
- Historical midterm patterns show the party opposing the sitting president often gains 20-40+ House seats, making 193 a relatively modest gain depending on the starting baseline
- This probability depends heavily on swing district performance in 2026, which remains sensitive to economic data, legislative accomplishments, and approval metrics
- Current Republican Senate odds at 50¢ indicate separate uncertainty about upper chamber performance, suggesting House outcomes are driven by distinct regional factors

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rhouseseats
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rhouseseats
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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