# Richest person on December 31, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 90% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/richest-person-december-31
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.707Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 90% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $18

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 90¢ | +3pp | $18 | polymarket | /markets/richest-person-on-december-31-2026-elon-musk-polymarket-0x01529e40f3b4cdf5eafe074adfe1bb9c152d57747ad93b7a87d3823d5d4d608f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 89 |
| 2026-04-28 | 87 |
| 2026-05-06 | 90 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Elon Musk +3pp 87→90¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates an 89% probability that the current richest person in the world will retain that position through December 31, 2026. The high probability reflects the difficulty of displacing established ultra-high-net-worth individuals within an 8-month timeframe. Movements in this ranking depend primarily on cryptocurrency volatility (which affects holdings of major crypto entrepreneurs) and equity market performance (impacting billionaires with concentrated stock positions). The main uncertainty stems from potential wealth transfer events, major acquisition announcements, or significant asset price swings. Resolution will be determined by verified net worth calculations as of year-end 2026, with particular attention to real-time market valuations of major holdings. The broader economy's performance through late 2026, combined with sector-specific dynamics in technology and finance, will meaningfully influence whether wealth concentration remains stable.

### Key factors

- Current wealth rankings are dominated by individuals with significant cryptocurrency holdings; major Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements by year-end could substantially alter relative positions
- Stock market performance of mega-cap tech companies will directly impact wealth of top entrepreneurs holding large equity stakes in their own companies
- Major M&A or asset sales announced before December 31, 2026 could create sudden wealth shifts among ultra-high-net-worth individuals
- Regulatory changes affecting cryptocurrency valuations or wealth taxation could impact how net worth is calculated as of year-end
- The 89% probability suggests markets view wealth concentration as relatively stable, implying significant new events would be required to change the ranking

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=richest-person-december-31

## License

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