# Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 30.0¢/kWh

> Above 28.0¢/kWh leads at 94%, runner-up 92% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rirespower
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.713Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: Above 28.0¢/kWh at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 28.5¢/kWh at 92%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 28.0¢/kWh | 94¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rhode-islands-average-residential-electricity-kalshi-kxrirespower-27feb28-t28.0 |
| Above 28.5¢/kWh | 92¢ | +19pp | $482 | kalshi | /markets/will-rhode-islands-average-residential-electricity-kalshi-kxrirespower-27feb28-t28.5 |
| Above 29.0¢/kWh | 83¢ | +6pp | $658 | kalshi | /markets/will-rhode-islands-average-residential-electricity-kalshi-kxrirespower-27feb28-t29.0 |
| Above 29.5¢/kWh | 62¢ | +10pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-rhode-islands-average-residential-electricity-kalshi-kxrirespower-27feb28-t29.5 |
| Above 30.0¢/kWh | 37¢ | +9pp | $422 | kalshi | /markets/will-rhode-islands-average-residential-electricity-kalshi-kxrirespower-27feb28-t30.0 |
| Above 30.5¢/kWh | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rhode-islands-average-residential-electricity-kalshi-kxrirespower-27feb28-t30.5 |
| Above 31.0¢/kWh | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rhode-islands-average-residential-electricity-kalshi-kxrirespower-27feb28-t31.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 28.0¢/kWh | Above 28.5¢/kWh | Above 29.0¢/kWh |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | — | 63 | 52 |
| 2026-08-19 | — | 82 | 62 |
| 2026-08-20 | — | 66 | 63 |
| 2026-08-21 | 92 | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | — | 85 | 69 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-19 · Above 28.5¢/kWh +19pp 63→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 28.5¢/kWh +19pp 66→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 28.5¢/kWh −16pp 82→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 29.5¢/kWh +10pp 37→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · Above 29.0¢/kWh +10pp 52→62¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets estimate an 81% chance that Rhode Island's average residential electricity price will exceed 28.5¢/kWh for 2026, with successively lower probabilities for higher price thresholds (22% for above 30¢/kWh). This reflects expectations about regional power supply costs, grid infrastructure investments, and fuel market dynamics. The probability distribution suggests most traders expect prices in the 28.5–30¢/kWh range rather than extreme highs or lows. Key drivers include natural gas prices, renewable energy deployment rates in New England, and regulatory decisions affecting utility rates. The 2026 year-end electricity rate data release—typically available in early 2027—will definitively resolve these contracts. Current market confidence in prices staying above 28.5¢/kWh but below 30.5¢/kWh indicates traders view near-term supply-demand fundamentals as relatively tight but not severely constrained.

### Key factors

- Natural gas pricing: Regional wholesale power costs are heavily influenced by Henry Hub futures and LNG export dynamics; a sustained drop in gas prices could push Rhode Island rates below consensus forecasts
- New England renewable capacity additions: Solar and offshore wind installations scheduled for 2025–2026 affect net electricity demand and marginal pricing; construction delays or accelerations would shift rate trajectories
- Federal and state rate-setting decisions: Public Utilities Commission rulings on rate cases and cost-of-service recovery directly determine residential bills; regulatory changes could add or subtract several cents per kWh
- Historical baseline: Rhode Island's 2024–2025 residential rates provide context; rates have averaged in the mid-to-high 20¢/kWh range, making 28.5¢ a modest increase rather than an anomaly
- Seasonal and weather volatility: Demand spikes during winter and summer peak periods influence annual averages; an unusually cold 2026 winter would pressure prices upward

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rirespower
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rirespower

## License

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