# Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 46000 total vehicles delivered in 2026

> Above 40000 leads at 95%, runner-up 91% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rivna
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.159Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 40000 at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 42000 at 91%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 40000 | 95¢ | +40pp | $538 | kalshi | /markets/will-rivian-automotive-inc-report-above-40000-tota-kalshi-kxrivna-28jandeliv-40000 |
| Above 42000 | 91¢ | +41pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-rivian-automotive-inc-report-above-42000-tota-kalshi-kxrivna-28jandeliv-42000 |
| Above 44000 | 89¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rivian-automotive-inc-report-above-44000-tota-kalshi-kxrivna-28jandeliv-44000 |
| Above 46000 | 88¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rivian-automotive-inc-report-above-46000-tota-kalshi-kxrivna-28jandeliv-46000 |
| Above 48000 | 82¢ | −1pp | $125 | kalshi | /markets/will-rivian-automotive-inc-report-above-48000-tota-kalshi-kxrivna-28jandeliv-48000 |
| Above 50000 | 78¢ | +33pp | $206 | kalshi | /markets/will-rivian-automotive-inc-report-above-50000-tota-kalshi-kxrivna-28jandeliv-50000 |
| Above 52000 | 65¢ | −3pp | $462 | kalshi | /markets/will-rivian-automotive-inc-report-above-52000-tota-kalshi-kxrivna-28jandeliv-52000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 40000 | Above 42000 | Above 44000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 55 | 50 | 24 |
| 2026-06-24 | 95 | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | — | 91 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 48000 +45pp 38→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 42000 +41pp 50→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 40000 +40pp 55→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 50000 +33pp 47→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 52000 +23pp 45→68¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing an 88% probability that Rivian will deliver more than 46,000 vehicles in 2026. This sits midway through the range of outcomes traders are betting on, reflecting confidence in Rivian's production scale while acknowledging execution risk. The probability is driven by recent production ramp-up data and capacity expansion, but tempered by supply chain vulnerabilities and the company's history of missing delivery targets. The key uncertainty centers on sustained factory output through Q4 2026, when year-end demand typically peaks. Final 2026 delivery figures will be reported by Rivian in early 2027, settling all related contracts simultaneously.

### Key factors

- Rivian's actual quarterly production run-rate in mid-2026 and capacity utilization rates at existing facilities
- Supply chain stability for batteries, semiconductors, and other critical components through the remainder of 2026
- Company guidance updates and management commentary on full-year delivery expectations during earnings calls
- Historical variance between Rivian's stated production targets and reported actual deliveries
- Competitive and macroeconomic conditions affecting luxury electric vehicle demand in 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rivna
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rivna

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.