# Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 115000000 as of June 30, 2026

> Above 115 million leads at 94%, runner-up 93% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 37 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rnccash
Updated: 2026-06-25T22:20:50.274Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-20

## Headline

- Leader: Above 115 million at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 120 million at 93%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 115 million | 94¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-national-committees-cash-on-ha-kalshi-kxrnccash-26jun30-a115000000 |
| Above 120 million | 93¢ | +22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-national-committees-cash-on-ha-kalshi-kxrnccash-26jun30-a120000000 |
| Above 125 million | 87¢ | +31pp | $246 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-national-committees-cash-on-ha-kalshi-kxrnccash-26jun30-a125000000 |
| Above 130 million | 44¢ | +5pp | $110 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-national-committees-cash-on-ha-kalshi-kxrnccash-26jun30-a130000000 |
| Above 135 million | 11¢ | — | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-national-committees-cash-on-ha-kalshi-kxrnccash-26jun30-a135000000 |
| Above 140 million | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-national-committees-cash-on-ha-kalshi-kxrnccash-26jun30-a140000000 |
| Above 145 million | 3¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-national-committees-cash-on-ha-kalshi-kxrnccash-26jun30-a145000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 115 million | Above 120 million | Above 125 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 70 | 71 | 58 |
| 2026-06-24 | 95 | 93 | 89 |
| 2026-06-25 | 95 | — | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 125 million +31pp 58→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 115 million +25pp 70→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 120 million +22pp 71→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 130 million +5pp 39→44¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question measures the likelihood that the Republican National Committee will report cash on hand exceeding $115 million as of June 30, 2026. The 13% probability reflects market expectations that the RNC's available funds will fall below this threshold. RNC cash positions fluctuate based on fundraising cycles, spending on campaign infrastructure, and transfers to allied groups. The outcome will be determined by official FEC filings showing the RNC's June 30, 2026 cash-on-hand figure, typically released in early July. Current market pricing suggests traders expect the RNC to hold between $100-115 million by that date, with substantially lower probabilities assigned to higher thresholds ($120M, $125M+). Recent fundraising trends and scheduled spending plans leading into the general election will materially influence the final figure.

### Key factors

- RNC's June 30, 2026 cash-on-hand figure will be disclosed in FEC filings released in early July 2026, making this objectively verifiable
- The $115 million threshold sits between the lower ($100-115M) and higher ($120M+) outcomes priced in the market, suggesting baseline expectations near this level
- RNC spending patterns through mid-2026 on infrastructure, advertising, and field operations will directly reduce available cash from earlier fundraising
- Fundraising momentum and donor contributions between now and June 30 will add to or deplete available cash reserves
- The RNC's historical cash-on-hand levels and typical end-of-quarter positions provide context for whether $115M represents above or below average liquidity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rnccash
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rnccash
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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