# Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026

> Becomes law without signature leads at 63%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/roadoutcome
Updated: 2026-07-09T21:20:48.758Z
Category: legislation · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Leader: Becomes law without signature at 63%
- Runner-up: Vetoed at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Becomes law without signature | 63¢ | — | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxroadoutcome-26-nosig |
| Vetoed | 21¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxroadoutcome-26-veto |
| Signed | 16¢ | +6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxroadoutcome-26-sign |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Becomes law without signature | Vetoed | Signed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 68 | 7 | 19 |
| 2026-07-09 | — | — | 25 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-09 · Signed +6pp 19→25¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act has a 73% probability of becoming law without Donald Trump's signature before July 14, 2026. This outcome occurs when Congress passes legislation with enough votes to override a presidential veto or when the bill becomes law through a pocket veto process. The high probability reflects market expectations that either the bill will pass with veto-proof majorities in both chambers, or Trump will not actively oppose it. The outcome will be resolved by July 14, 2026, when Congress's legislative calendar and Trump's actions will be finalized. Key uncertainties include whether the bill reaches Trump's desk before the deadline, the margin of support in Congress, and Trump's decision to sign, veto, or allow the bill to become law without action.

### Key factors

- Congressional vote counts and whether either chamber commands the two-thirds majority required to override a presidential veto
- Trump's stated position on housing policy and whether he signals intent to sign or veto the legislation
- The bill's progress through committee and floor votes, determining whether it reaches Trump's desk before July 14, 2026
- Market pricing across the three contract outcomes (signed at 19¢, vetoed at 3¢, becomes law without signature at 73¢) indicating strong consensus on the no-signature scenario
- Historical patterns of housing legislation passing with bipartisan support versus Trump's previous veto behavior on comparable bills

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/roadoutcome
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=roadoutcome
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.