# Roasso Kumamoto vs. FC Ryūkyū

> Roasso Kumamoto leads at 45%, runner-up 36% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/roasso-kumamoto-vs-fc-ryky
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.775Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Leader: Roasso Kumamoto at 45%
- Runner-up: FC Ryūkyū at 36%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roasso Kumamoto | 45¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/roasso-kumamoto-vs-fc-ryky-roasso-kumamoto-polymarket-0x9f088693ed83a9411e7e9ec3957e30339dbf202715819c4f8e5298295920550d |
| FC Ryūkyū | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/roasso-kumamoto-vs-fc-ryky-fc-ryky-polymarket-0x5b66bc16c6ab19a0fae7169f716f8a054c01e08f231e33507ec23911d0e10afb |
| Draw (Roasso Kumamoto vs. FC Ryūkyū) | 34¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/roasso-kumamoto-vs-fc-ryky-draw-roasso-kumamoto-vs-polymarket-0xe23c96853fa68b23bf41baceed1757265f0ee516753f076cc0b0a2e6fa06dbb2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Roasso Kumamoto | FC Ryūkyū | Draw (Roasso Kumamoto vs. FC Ryūkyū) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 48 | 37 | 35 |
| 2026-05-07 | 48 | 37 | 32 |
| 2026-05-08 | 49 | 37 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Draw (Roasso Kumamoto vs. FC Ryūkyū) −3pp 35→32¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The market assigns Roasso Kumamoto a 47% chance of winning against FC Ryūkyū, with a 39% probability assigned to a draw outcome. This reflects near-parity between the two teams, suggesting traders view them as closely matched. The probability is likely influenced by recent form, head-to-head record, and current league standings. Key drivers of movement would include team injury reports, lineup changes, or shifts in seasonal momentum leading up to the match. The match itself will resolve the contract when the final whistle sounds, making the actual result the primary catalyst. Low 24-hour trading volume indicates limited recent activity, suggesting the current price may reflect older information rather than recent developments.

### Key factors

- Roasso Kumamoto currently holds a 47% win probability versus 39% for a draw, with the remaining 14% implied for FC Ryūkyū, indicating the market views Roasso as slight favorites
- Zero trading volume in the past 24 hours on both contracts suggests prices may not reflect real-time team news or recent performance updates
- The ~8 percentage point gap between Roasso and draw outcomes indicates asymmetry in how traders assess match outcomes rather than three-way equiprobability
- Current league position, recent match results, and head-to-head historical performance between the clubs would significantly influence whether this probability proves calibrated
- The match date determines when resolution occurs; any postponement or scheduling changes would extend the period of uncertainty

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/roasso-kumamoto-vs-fc-ryky
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=roasso-kumamoto-vs-fc-ryky

## License

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