# Will Gentle Mates win Rocket League Major Paris

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 10 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rocketleague
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:24.416Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $154

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRG Esports | 17¢ | +5pp | $83 | kalshi | /markets/will-nrg-esports-win-rocket-league-major-paris-nrg-kalshi-kxrocketleague-paris26-nrg |
| Vitality | 14¢ | — | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-vitality-win-rocket-league-major-paris-vitali-kalshi-kxrocketleague-paris26-vit |
| FURIA Esports | 3¢ | — | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-furia-esports-win-rocket-league-major-paris-f-kalshi-kxrocketleague-paris26-furia |
| Karmine Corp | 5¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-karmine-corp-win-rocket-league-major-paris-ka-kalshi-kxrocketleague-paris26-kc |
| Gentle Mates | 11¢ | +2pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-gentle-mates-win-rocket-league-major-paris-ge-kalshi-kxrocketleague-paris26-m8 |
| Twisted Minds | 8¢ | +6pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-twisted-minds-win-rocket-league-major-paris-t-kalshi-kxrocketleague-paris26-twis |
| Ninjas in Pyjamas | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ninjas-in-pyjamas-win-rocket-league-major-par-kalshi-kxrocketleague-paris26-nip |
| Man City Esports | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-man-city-esports-win-rocket-league-major-pari-kalshi-kxrocketleague-paris26-mci |
| FUT Esports | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fut-esports-win-rocket-league-major-paris-fut-kalshi-kxrocketleague-paris26-fut |
| R8 Esports | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-r8-esports-win-rocket-league-major-paris-r8-e-kalshi-kxrocketleague-paris26-r8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 9 |
| 2026-05-09 | 14 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Twisted Minds +6pp 2→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · NRG Esports +5pp 12→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · NRG Esports +4pp 8→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Paris Gentle Mates will win the entire Rocket League Major Paris tournament. At 9%, the market views them as an unlikely champion despite showing strength in individual matchups. The low probability reflects uncertainty about their performance against top-tier competition across multiple matches required to win a major tournament. The main driver of this valuation appears to be the relative strength of other competitors like Vitality, combined with the difference between winning single matches (where Gentle Mates shows ~50-85% odds in some contract pairs) versus sustaining that performance through an entire tournament bracket. The tournament results themselves will serve as the primary catalyst, determining whether Gentle Mates advance through their bracket or are eliminated.

### Key factors

- Paris Gentle Mates' single-match win probability ranges from 53-85% against certain opponents, but tournament victory requires winning multiple consecutive matches
- Boston Breach is priced significantly lower than Gentle Mates in their head-to-head matchup (13¢ vs 85¢), suggesting market confidence in Gentle Mates for that specific contest
- Vitality is priced at 16¢ to win the entire tournament, indicating other competitors are viewed as stronger championship contenders
- The 9% market probability for Gentle Mates to win the major suggests aggregate expectations of competitive elimination before the finals
- Trading volume varies significantly across contracts (highest at $1165 for Breach vs Mates, lowest at $103 for Vitality), indicating different confidence levels in various matchup assessments

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rocketleague
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rocketleague

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.