# Will Tulsi Gabbard go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 17% across 18 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/roganguest
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.999Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $847

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanye West | 15¢ | — | $800 | kalshi | /markets/will-kanye-west-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-bef-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-kw |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 40¢ | +6pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivek-ramaswamy-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experienc-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-vr |
| Alex Jones | 17¢ | ±0 | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-jones-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-bef-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-ale |
| Bernie Sanders | 17¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-ber |
| Barack Obama | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barack-obama-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-b-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-bo |
| Kamala Harris | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kamala-harris-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-kh |
| Donald Trump | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-b-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-djt |
| Sam Altman | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sam-altman-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-bef-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-sa |
| David Sacks | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-sacks-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-be-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-ds |
| Bill Ackman | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bill-ackman-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-be-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-ba |
| Joe Biden | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-biden-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-befo-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-joe |
| Jeff Bezos | 26¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeff-bezos-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-bef-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-jef |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tulsi-gabbard-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-tul |
| Michael Saylor | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-saylor-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-mic |
| Zohran Mamdani | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zohran-mamdani-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-zoh |
| Hunter Biden | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hunter-biden-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-b-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-hun |
| Drake | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-before-j-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-dra |
| Clavicular | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clavicular-go-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-bef-kalshi-kxroganguest-27jan01-cla |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 18 |
| 2026-04-25 | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 |
| 2026-05-08 | 31 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Jeff Bezos +8pp 14→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Vivek Ramaswamy +6pp 37→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Vivek Ramaswamy +6pp 43→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Alex Jones −3pp 19→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 20% chance that Tulsi Gabbard will appear on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026. The probability reflects her current role as Director of National Intelligence and her public profile, balanced against the relatively low baseline rate of cabinet members appearing on the show. Market activity suggests traders are pricing in some uncertainty about her tenure duration—related contracts show elevated probability that she could announce her departure before summer 2026. Her appearance would depend on scheduling decisions made by both her office and the podcast, which are not predictable from public information. The main factors are whether she remains in office through year-end, her willingness to do media appearances while serving in intelligence roles, and the logistics of coordinating with Rogan's production schedule. The resolution will be definitive only after December 31, 2026.

### Key factors

- Gabbard's tenure duration matters significantly: related markets price a 30-44% chance she departs before July 2026, which would affect both her ability and incentive to appear
- Cabinet-level intelligence officials rarely appear on unstructured podcasts due to operational security protocols and communications restrictions
- Rogan's guest list has included political figures and administration officials, but appearance rates are irregular and difficult to forecast
- Gabbard's prior media engagement patterns as a congresswoman and candidate could inform but don't guarantee future behavior in a sensitive intelligence role
- The 7-month window provides multiple scheduling opportunities, but no scheduled events or announcements currently indicate imminent appearance likelihood

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/roganguest
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=roganguest

## License

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