# Will Playboi Carti be a Headliner at Rolling Loud Miami 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 2 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/roleateventrolling
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.812Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Playboi Carti | 3¢ | — | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-playboi-carti-be-a-headliner-at-rolling-loud-kalshi-kxroleateventrolling-27dec31-pla |
| Lil Baby | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lil-baby-be-a-headliner-at-rolling-loud-miami-kalshi-kxroleateventrolling-27dec31-bab |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 3 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Playboi Carti will be announced as a headliner for Rolling Loud Miami 2026, an annual hip-hop festival typically held in May. The 3% probability reflects skepticism about his inclusion at that tier. Rolling Loud Miami's headliner lineup is typically announced 2-4 weeks before the festival date. Key factors include his recent touring activity and release schedule, his historical relationship with the festival (previous appearances and roles), broader festival booking trends for 2026, and competition from other major artists for headline slots. The probability could shift significantly once the official lineup announcement occurs, which would provide definitive resolution. Market participants appear to be pricing in that festival organizers are more likely to position other artists in the headliner category this year.

### Key factors

- Rolling Loud Miami 2026 official headliner announcement date and lineup composition
- Playboi Carti's touring schedule and availability in May 2026
- His historical precedent at Rolling Loud Miami (whether he has previously headlined or held secondary billing)
- Broader 2026 hip-hop release and touring cycles that determine which artists are actively promoted
- Typical headliner count and artist selection patterns for Rolling Loud Miami events

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=roleateventrolling

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