# Will Cardi B perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 36% across 20 contracts — refreshed 33 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/roleinproduction
Updated: 2026-09-21T10:20:51.359Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-26

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Toliver | 72¢ | +43pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-don-toliver-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-artis-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-dtol |
| The Weeknd | 80¢ | +14pp | $285 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-weeknd-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-artist-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-week |
| Tate McRae | 84¢ | +2pp | $199 | kalshi | /markets/will-tate-mcrae-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-artist-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-tmcr |
| Kendrick Lamar | 34¢ | +1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-kendrick-lamar-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-ar-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-klam |
| Drake | 36¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-artist-at-l-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-drak |
| Taylor Swift | 16¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-arti-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-tswi |
| Billie Eilish | 31¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-billie-eilish-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-art-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-beil |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sabrina-carpenter-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-scar |
| Ariana Grande | 26¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-art-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-agra |
| Beyoncé | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-beyonc-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-artist-at-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-beyo |
| SZA | 31¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sza-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-artist-at-lau-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-sza |
| Harry Styles | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-styles-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-arti-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-hsty |
| Doja Cat | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doja-cat-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-artist-a-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-doja |
| Tyler, The Creator | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-the-creator-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-tyle |
| JENNIE | 31¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jennie-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-artist-at-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-jenn |
| Bruno Mars | 18¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bruno-mars-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-artist-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-bmar |
| ROSÉ | 25¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ros-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-artist-at-lau-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-rose |
| Alex Warren | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-warren-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-artis-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-awar |
| Charli xcx | 31¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-charli-xcx-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-artist-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-char |
| Ed Sheeran | 21¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ed-sheeran-perform-as-an-in-game-radio-artist-kalshi-kxroleinproduction-gta27nov19-eshe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | 34 |
| 2026-09-19 | 45 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · Don Toliver +43pp 33→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Don Toliver +21pp 12→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Beyoncé +21pp 12→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Billie Eilish +19pp 14→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Sabrina Carpenter +19pp 13→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the market's current estimate that Cardi B will be featured as an in-game radio artist when Grand Theft Auto VI launches. The 14% probability sits in the middle range among artists being tracked, suggesting meaningful but not dominant odds compared to higher-probability artists like The Weeknd (23%) and lower ones like Ariana Grande (12%). The probability is primarily driven by two factors: Cardi B's historical relationship with the GTA franchise and Rockstar's tendency to feature mainstream hip-hop artists in radio stations, balanced against the limited roster slots available at launch and the competitive field of major artists seeking inclusion. The key catalyst will be Rockstar's official announcement of the complete in-game radio lineup, which typically occurs in the weeks before or at launch, which would definitively resolve this contract. Until then, uncertainty remains around Cardi B's negotiation status with the studio and which artists ultimately secured spots.

### Key factors

- Cardi B has no confirmed prior involvement with GTA radio stations, unlike some competitors who have appeared in previous GTA titles
- The Weeknd contract trades at 23% versus Cardi B at 14%, suggesting market preference for other artists in the limited roster
- Rockstar has not publicly disclosed the GTA VI radio artist lineup as of mid-September 2026, leaving resolution dependent on an official announcement
- Hip-hop/rap is a staple genre for GTA soundtracks, which could favor Cardi B, but competing artists span multiple genres with varying market odds from 12-23%
- Launch radio stations typically feature 15-25 artists per station across multiple genres, creating both opportunity and scarcity that pricing reflects

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/roleinproduction
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=roleinproduction

## License

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