# Will Jonathan Majors perform as Kang in Avengers

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 55% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/roleinproductiondoomsday
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.751Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 55% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doomsday?: Tom Holland as Spider-Man | 42¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-holland-perform-as-spider-man-in-avengers-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-tom |
| Doomsday?: Hugh Jackman as Wolverine | 71¢ | −1pp | $984 | kalshi | /markets/will-hugh-jackman-perform-as-wolverine-in-avengers-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-hug |
| Doomsday?: Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man | 71¢ | +2pp | $274 | kalshi | /markets/will-tobey-maguire-perform-as-spider-man-in-avenge-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-tob |
| Doomsday?: Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp | 25¢ | ±0 | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-evangeline-lilly-perform-as-the-wasp-in-aveng-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-eva |
| Doomsday?: Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine | 44¢ | ±0 | $53 | kalshi | /markets/will-don-cheadle-perform-as-james-rhodes-war-machi-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-don |
| Doomsday?: Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan | 41¢ | +1pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-jon-favreau-perform-as-happy-hogan-in-avenger-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-jonf |
| Doomsday?: Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop | 63¢ | −2pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-hailee-steinfeld-perform-as-kate-bishop-in-av-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-hai |
| Doomsday?: Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange | 80¢ | +3pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-benedict-cumberbatch-perform-as-doctor-strang-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-ben |
| Doomsday?: Mark Ruffalo as Hulk | 58¢ | +6pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-ruffalo-perform-as-hulk-in-avengers-doom-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-mar |
| Doomsday?: Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau | 54¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-teyonah-parris-perform-as-monica-rambeau-in-a-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-tey |
| Doomsday?: Kathryn Newton as Cassie Lang | 84¢ | −5pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-kathryn-newton-perform-as-cassie-lang-in-aven-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-ket |
| Doomsday?: Jonathan Majors as Kang | 18¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-jonathan-majors-perform-as-kang-in-avengers-d-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-jon |
| Doomsday?: Brie Larson as Captain Marvel | 42¢ | −1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-brie-larson-perform-as-captain-marvel-in-aven-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-bri |
| Doomsday?: Halle Berry as Storm | 38¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-halle-berry-perform-as-storm-in-avengers-doom-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-hal |
| Doomsday?: Benedict Wong as Wong | 75¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-benedict-wong-perform-as-wong-in-avengers-doo-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-bene |
| Doomsday?: Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-andrew-garfield-perform-as-spider-man-in-aven-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-and |
| Doomsday?: Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez | 59¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-xochitl-gomez-perform-as-america-chavez-in-av-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-xoc |
| Doomsday?: Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel | 81¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iman-vellani-perform-as-ms-marvel-in-avengers-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-ima |
| Doomsday?: Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool | 81¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ryan-reynolds-perform-as-deadpool-in-avengers-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-rya |
| Doomsday?: Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gwyneth-paltrow-perform-as-pepper-potts-in-av-kalshi-kxroleinproductiondoomsday-gwy |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 46 |
| 2026-04-25 | 51 |
| 2026-05-02 | 54 |
| 2026-05-08 | 49 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Doomsday?: Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan +17pp 24→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Doomsday?: Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts −16pp 69→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Doomsday?: Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp −15pp 33→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Doomsday?: Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp +12pp 21→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Doomsday?: Halle Berry as Storm +10pp 28→38¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates a 53% chance that Jonathan Majors will appear as Kang in the upcoming Avengers: Doomsday film. The assessment reflects uncertainty following Majors' legal challenges in 2023-2024, which created doubt about his continued involvement in major MCU projects despite no official studio announcement either way. The main factors driving this mid-range probability are the lack of formal confirmation from Marvel Studios and the actor's recent legal resolutions, balanced against the character's central role in the multiverse storyline and Majors' continued industry presence. Official casting announcements from Marvel or production updates during filming would provide the clearest resolution point, likely occurring sometime before the film's anticipated 2026-2027 release window.

### Key factors

- Marvel Studios has made no public statement confirming or denying Majors' involvement as Kang since his 2023 legal case resolution
- Majors has not been publicly associated with major MCU projects announced after his legal issues, creating ambiguity about his status
- Kang is essential to the multiverse narrative arc established in prior MCU films, creating narrative pressure to include or explicitly recast the character
- The comparison contracts show Tobey Maguire (70¢) rated higher than Majors (53¢) for Avengers appearances, suggesting market participants view established returning actors as more certain
- Production and casting details have remained unusually sparse relative to typical Marvel promotional timelines

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/roleinproductiondoomsday
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=roleinproductiondoomsday

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.