# Will Rolex prices hit __ by April 30 — ↑ $12,250

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 6 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rolex-prices-hit-april-30
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.946Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $95K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $120 | 12¢ | +3pp | $53K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-120-polymarket-0xba8af64c1b08f322ca7f66f3cfdbdfd50c0eae6fc88d2fcf29c30ceb62682421 |
| ↓ 45,000 | 41¢ | −2pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-45000-polymarket-0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee |
| ↓ 40,000 | 31¢ | −2pp | $13K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-40000-polymarket-0x1e5564c1a2a6839cc2780a889437c63786a2c2ec5e95569b710ee659a3e8baa2 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 83¢ | −3pp | $11K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↓ 35,000 | 21¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-35000-polymarket-0x2745c38ff0617cb345c1d2df19b4f74ea777508e07411e88eeb6ab3affcda2a2 |
| ↑ $12,000 | 5¢ | ±0 | $3 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-gold-gc-hit-by-end-of-december-12000-polymarket-0xd004d5dfba46e636f05909046ec09eba1fdf8eb21d9466f64228053e98e8f87f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 23 |
| 2026-05-25 | 24 |
| 2026-06-01 | 29 |
| 2026-06-08 | 44 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · ↓ 1,500 +11pp 74→85¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · ↓ 1,500 +8pp 85→93¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · ↓ 1,500 −7pp 93→86¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · ↓ 1,500 +6pp 62→68¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · ↓ 1,500 +6pp 68→74¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rolex-prices-hit-april-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rolex-prices-hit-april-30

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.