# Romania SuperLiga

> Winner: Rapid București leads at 48%, runner-up 48% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/romania-superliga
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.158Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-07

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Rapid București at 48%
- Runner-up: Winner: Dinamo at 48%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Rapid București | 48¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/romania-superliga-winner-rapid-bucureti-polymarket-0x09919c7e68ee7b9168bcf275f558e3c608ccb211b4aa30c38af7ce453ec7a265 |
| Winner: Dinamo | 48¢ | +9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/romania-superliga-winner-dinamo-polymarket-0x5c6bb02f411af39d80314d0c2214efb01caf9e0e6725a8d99465fc551bd1d3ec |
| Winner: CFR Cluj | 48¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/romania-superliga-winner-cfr-cluj-polymarket-0x6f3214b8d70143102db1577c819f021912e4a0e383d429d1c4bcd6ad36d512dc |
| Winner: Universitatea Craiova | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/romania-superliga-winner-universitatea-craiova-polymarket-0x89b8373b8703663e175c0ef6d3fbcdca53a5fcac80700f1dbdc621e444fbd2c6 |
| Winner: Universitatea Cluj | 48¢ | +23pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/romania-superliga-winner-universitatea-cluj-polymarket-0x09892e4414ef529229595abf21fe0eb4febbfd9aeebdf57c26ecd19c2e7f7a32 |
| Winner: Petrolul | 47¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/romania-superliga-winner-petrolul-polymarket-0x63e3d492991a2caa6d632a9f5d842cad671165706d8b7c3259a793a77911a174 |
| Winner: Argeș Pitești | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/romania-superliga-winner-arge-piteti-polymarket-0xb35dc0163e25e70c151c2bc6f50b5a725f9b6c6c3a18dba4b46b597d87352ec6 |
| Winner: FCSB | 47¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/romania-superliga-winner-fcsb-polymarket-0x9d9237f73574cbad5fc8df249108398f7fb61c05f71d56bfdfac82b9d470f41e |
| Winner: Farul Constanța | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/romania-superliga-winner-farul-constana-polymarket-0xfe38f997454744877d3dd1ac69a96ce573bffe0e0375a723b1942044650f6923 |
| Winner: Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/romania-superliga-winner-cskszereda-miercurea-ciuc-polymarket-0x28725ec90cbc99b3e4048999d00282d19e7fa0e4894211c4db2d60b290681ecb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Rapid București | Winner: Dinamo | Winner: CFR Cluj |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 39 | 39 | 35 |
| 2026-04-29 | 28 | 34 | 36 |
| 2026-04-30 | 25 | 34 | 32 |
| 2026-05-01 | 45 | 40 | 37 |
| 2026-05-02 | 47 | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 43 | 38 | 43 |
| 2026-05-07 | — | 47 | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Universitatea Craiova +29pp 49→78¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Winner: Universitatea Craiova −29pp 78→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Universitatea Cluj +23pp 20→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Winner: Universitatea Craiova −20pp 68→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc +16pp 21→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market estimates that Dinamo will win the 2026 Romania SuperLiga championship, currently priced at 48% on Polymarket. The market shows a tightly clustered outcome, with four teams (Dinamo, FCSB, Botoșani, and Oțelul Galați) each valued between 42-48%, indicating uncertainty about who will secure the title. Trading volume remains modest at $100 per contract over 24 hours, suggesting limited liquidity and potential for price shifts as the season progresses. The championship outcome depends on regular-season performance, head-to-head results, and playoff mechanics if applicable. Resolution will occur at the end of the 2025-26 SuperLiga season, with the title awarded to the team with the best final record or playoff winner depending on league rules.

### Key factors

- Dinamo and the runner-up are identically priced at 48%, indicating near-parity in perceived strength rather than a clear favorite
- Four different teams occupy the 42-48% probability range, suggesting the market views multiple outcomes as similarly likely
- Low 24-hour trading volume ($100 per contract) implies limited market depth and potential for repricing based on injury news, transfers, or match results
- Current season standings and recent form in the SuperLiga would directly impact whether these probabilities shift toward or away from the current leader
- The championship resolution depends on final league table or playoff structure, with timing typically occurring in late May or June depending on the season schedule

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/romania-superliga
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=romania-superliga

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.