# In the Grey Rotten Tomatoes score

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 58% across 12 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rt
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:24.536Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Probability: 58% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $100K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 60 | 96¢ | +6pp | $29K | kalshi | /markets/mortal-kombat-ii-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-60-kalshi-kxrt-mor-60 |
| Above 65 | 27¢ | −16pp | $25K | kalshi | /markets/mortal-kombat-ii-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-65-kalshi-kxrt-mor-65 |
| Above 67 | 3¢ | −19pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/mortal-kombat-ii-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-67-kalshi-kxrt-mor-67 |
| Above 92 | 62¢ | −10pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/the-sheep-detectives-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-9-kalshi-kxrt-shee-92 |
| Above 93 | 26¢ | −21pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/the-sheep-detectives-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-9-kalshi-kxrt-shee-93 |
| Above 64 | 50¢ | +20pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/mortal-kombat-ii-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-64-kalshi-kxrt-mor-64 |
| Above 62 | 87¢ | +7pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/mortal-kombat-ii-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-62-kalshi-kxrt-mor-62 |
| Above 63 | 84¢ | +21pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/mortal-kombat-ii-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-63-kalshi-kxrt-mor-63 |
| The Tour (Live in 3D) Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 90 | 78¢ | +30pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/billie-eilish-hit-me-hard-and-soft-the-tour-live-i-kalshi-kxrt-bil-90 |
| The Tour (Live in 3D) Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 87 | 84¢ | +27pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/billie-eilish-hit-me-hard-and-soft-the-tour-live-i-kalshi-kxrt-bil-87 |
| Above 90 | 91¢ | +7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/the-sheep-detectives-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-9-kalshi-kxrt-shee-90 |
| Above 66 | 12¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/mortal-kombat-ii-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-66-kalshi-kxrt-mor-66 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 30 |
| 2026-04-25 | 18 |
| 2026-05-02 | 39 |
| 2026-05-09 | 52 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · The Tour (Live in 3D) Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 87 +63pp 25→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Above 65 −43pp 77→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · The Tour (Live in 3D) Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 87 −40pp 88→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Above 92 +39pp 35→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · The Tour (Live in 3D) Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 90 −38pp 75→37¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 62% probability reflects market expectations that an upcoming film titled 'In the Grey' will receive a Rotten Tomatoes score in a specified range, likely between 75-77 points based on the contract structure. The prediction is primarily driven by sentiment around the film's production quality, cast, and director relative to comparable releases in its genre. Market participants are pricing in moderate confidence rather than high certainty, suggesting mixed signals about the film's critical reception. The main catalyst will be the film's release and subsequent critic reviews, which typically accumulate within the first week and stabilize the Rotten Tomatoes score. Trading volume patterns show the broader 75+ threshold has much higher conviction (97¢) compared to the tighter 77+ range (41¢), indicating disagreement about whether the film will reach higher critical acclaim. Resolution depends entirely on how professional critics rate the finished film upon theatrical or platform release.

### Key factors

- The distribution of contract prices shows declining conviction at higher score thresholds, with 75+ at 97¢ versus 77+ at 41¢, indicating uncertainty about whether the film exceeds modest critical expectations
- Recent comparable films in the same genre or from the same studio provide baseline data for typical critical reception patterns and score ranges
- Production details such as director track record, cast pedigree, and reported budget level historically correlate with critical reception outcomes
- The film's scheduled release date and critic screening policies will determine the speed and completeness of Rotten Tomatoes score accumulation
- Trading volume concentration in 2-3 specific contracts suggests some contracts lack sufficient market depth to reflect genuine probability estimates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rt

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.