# Will Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 10 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rticket
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:12.148Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $240

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance and Erika Kirk | 3¢ | — | $237 | kalshi | /markets/will-jd-vance-and-erika-kirk-be-the-2028-republica-kalshi-kxrticket-28nov07-jvanekir |
| JD Vance and Marco Rubio | 22¢ | −1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-jd-vance-and-marco-rubio-be-the-2028-republic-kalshi-kxrticket-28nov07-jvanmrub |
| Marco Rubio and JD Vance | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marco-rubio-and-jd-vance-be-the-2028-republic-kalshi-kxrticket-28nov07-mrubjvan |
| JD Vance and Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jd-vance-and-sarah-huckabee-sanders-be-the-20-kalshi-kxrticket-28nov07-jvanssan |
| Marco Rubio and Glenn Youngkin | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marco-rubio-and-glenn-youngkin-be-the-2028-re-kalshi-kxrticket-28nov07-mrubgyou |
| JD Vance and Donald Trump | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jd-vance-and-donald-trump-be-the-2028-republi-kalshi-kxrticket-28nov07-jvandjt |
| Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marco-rubio-and-elise-stefanik-be-the-2028-re-kalshi-kxrticket-28nov07-mrubeste |
| Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-jr-and-marco-rubio-be-the-2028-r-kalshi-kxrticket-28nov07-dtjrmrub |
| Glenn Youngkin and Marco Rubio | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-glenn-youngkin-and-marco-rubio-be-the-2028-re-kalshi-kxrticket-28nov07-gyoumrub |
| Ron DeSantis and JD Vance | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ron-desantis-and-jd-vance-be-the-2028-republi-kalshi-kxrticket-28nov07-rdesjvan |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 24 |
| 2026-05-25 | 11 |
| 2026-06-03 | 22 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Marco Rubio and Byron Donalds will run together as the Republican presidential and vice-presidential nominees in 2028. The 5% estimate reflects several structural challenges: Rubio currently serves as Secretary of State, which typically limits presidential ambitions, and separate contract markets show only 23% odds he becomes the presidential nominee at all. The pairing faces additional difficulty since Donalds, a U.S. Representative from Florida, would need to establish significantly higher national profile. The main factors affecting this probability are Rubio's political trajectory over the next 18 months—whether he remains in the cabinet, leaves early, or pivots toward electoral politics—and whether Republican primary dynamics favor a ticket with two Florida-based candidates. The 2028 Republican National Convention in summer 2028 will ultimately resolve this question, though the nomination outcome will be determined through primary elections and delegate selection processes beginning in early 2028.

### Key factors

- Rubio's current role as Secretary of State and whether he departs the cabinet before the 2028 cycle, as current markets price only 19% probability he leaves before 2027
- Separate markets show only 23% odds Rubio becomes Republican presidential nominee, suggesting the baseline probability of any specific VP pairing is constrained
- Byron Donalds has not yet been nominated for Florida governor per available markets (86% odds), making a vice-presidential nomination less likely without higher state-level credential
- Two nominees from the same state would be historically unusual for a major party ticket, creating structural disadvantage
- The Republican primary process beginning early 2028 will determine the nominee and their running mate selection

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rticket
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rticket
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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