# Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 17 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rttv
Updated: 2026-09-21T21:20:49.614Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-28

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 85 | 23¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/harry-potter-and-the-philosophers-stone-rotten-tom-kalshi-kxrttv-har-85 |
| Above 45 | 35¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/harry-potter-and-the-philosophers-stone-rotten-tom-kalshi-kxrttv-har-45 |
| Above 50 | 26¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/harry-potter-and-the-philosophers-stone-rotten-tom-kalshi-kxrttv-har-50 |
| Above 65 | 51¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/harry-potter-and-the-philosophers-stone-rotten-tom-kalshi-kxrttv-har-65 |
| Above 75 | 34¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/harry-potter-and-the-philosophers-stone-rotten-tom-kalshi-kxrttv-har-75 |
| Above 80 | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/harry-potter-and-the-philosophers-stone-rotten-tom-kalshi-kxrttv-har-80 |
| Above 90 | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/harry-potter-and-the-philosophers-stone-rotten-tom-kalshi-kxrttv-har-90 |
| Above 45 | 80¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/blade-runner-2099-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-45-kalshi-kxrttv-bla-45 |
| Above 50 | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/blade-runner-2099-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-50-kalshi-kxrttv-bla-50 |
| Above 55 | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/blade-runner-2099-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-55-kalshi-kxrttv-bla-55 |
| Above 60 | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/blade-runner-2099-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-60-kalshi-kxrttv-bla-60 |
| Above 65 | 20¢ | −70pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/blade-runner-2099-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-65-kalshi-kxrttv-bla-65 |
| Above 70 | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/blade-runner-2099-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-70-kalshi-kxrttv-bla-70 |
| Above 75 | 15¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/blade-runner-2099-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-75-kalshi-kxrttv-bla-75 |
| Above 80 | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/blade-runner-2099-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-80-kalshi-kxrttv-bla-80 |
| Above 85 | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/blade-runner-2099-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-85-kalshi-kxrttv-bla-85 |
| Above 90 | 34¢ | +29pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/blade-runner-2099-rotten-tomatoes-score-above-90-kalshi-kxrttv-bla-90 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | 36 |
| 2026-09-12 | 21 |
| 2026-09-19 | 23 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Above 65 +70pp 20→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Above 65 −70pp 90→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 90 +29pp 5→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 50 −8pp 34→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 90 −7pp 29→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone will achieve a Rotten Tomatoes score above a specific threshold (the exact threshold varies by contract, ranging from 45 to 55 points). The current 20% probability suggests low conviction that the film will reach higher score levels. Key drivers include the critical reception patterns of recent fantasy adaptations, the original film's legacy reception versus modern critical standards, and how contemporary reviewers evaluate family entertainment relative to prestige cinema. The resolution depends entirely on the film's official Rotten Tomatoes score once sufficient critic reviews accumulate and the platform publishes its final aggregate rating. Market activity shows minimal recent trading volume on these contracts, indicating limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads.

### Key factors

- Historical Rotten Tomatoes scores for Harry Potter films range from 80% (Prisoner of Azkaban) to 90% (Goblet of Fire), suggesting any new release could plausibly exceed 55%
- The threshold contracts show declining probabilities at higher score levels (55% scores 41¢ vs 45% scores 55¢), indicating market uncertainty about whether the film will land in upper-percentile critical reception
- Zero 24-hour trading volume suggests these markets lack active price discovery and may not reflect real-time consensus
- Critical standards for family fantasy films have shifted since the original 2001 release, affecting comparison benchmarks
- The film requires sufficient critic reviews to generate a final Rotten Tomatoes aggregate score, and timing of review publication will determine when resolution occurs

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rttv
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rttv

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.