# Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.91 by Dec 31

> Above $0.41 leads at 97%, runner-up 97% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rtx5090max
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.499Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $0.41 at 97%
- Runner-up: Above $0.56 at 97%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $135

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $0.41 | 97¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxrtx5090max-26dec31-0.410 |
| Above $0.56 | 97¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxrtx5090max-26dec31-0.560 |
| Above $0.71 | 97¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxrtx5090max-26dec31-0.710 |
| Above $0.86 | 61¢ | +30pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxrtx5090max-26dec31-0.860 |
| Above $1.01 | 30¢ | +28pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxrtx5090max-26dec31-1.010 |
| Above $1.16 | 29¢ | +35pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxrtx5090max-26dec31-1.160 |
| Above $1.31 | 29¢ | +12pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxrtx5090max-26dec31-1.310 |
| Above $1.46 | 24¢ | — | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxrtx5090max-26dec31-1.460 |
| Above $1.61 | 22¢ | +5pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxrtx5090max-26dec31-1.610 |
| Above $1.76 | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxrtx5090max-26dec31-1.760 |
| Above $1.91 | 7¢ | −4pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxrtx5090max-26dec31-1.910 |
| Above $2.06 | 6¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxrtx5090max-26dec31-2.060 |
| Above $2.21 | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxrtx5090max-26dec31-2.210 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $0.41 | Above $0.56 | Above $0.71 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 18 | 18 | 17 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Above $1.16 +35pp 23→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $0.86 +30pp 32→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $1.01 +28pp 27→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $1.31 +12pp 17→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $1.61 +5pp 15→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates an 97% probability that the RTX 5090's cost per compute hour will exceed $0.56 by year-end 2026, with sharply declining odds for higher price thresholds. The high baseline probability reflects confidence that the GPU will remain expensive relative to competing hardware, while steeper price cuts or alternative acceleration technologies would push costs downward. Market participants assign only 24% odds to exceeding $1.46 per hour—suggesting most expect moderate price declines over seven months rather than premium pricing. The actual resolution depends on RTX 5090 availability, manufacturing volume, competing GPU launches (particularly from AMD and Intel), and cloud provider pricing strategies. Major catalyst: NVIDIA's official launch specifications and vendor pricing announcements, typically accompanying or immediately following hardware release, will establish baseline costs that inform market repricing.

### Key factors

- NVIDIA RTX 5090 launch timing and initial MSRP versus previous-generation flagship pricing
- Availability and competitive positioning of alternative accelerators (AMD MI300X successors, Intel Gaudi updates) through H2 2026
- Cloud provider adoption rates and per-hour pricing tiers set by major vendors (AWS, Azure, GCP)
- Manufacturing yield and production ramp affecting supply constraints and secondary-market premiums
- Actual measured compute efficiency (FLOPs per watt, memory bandwidth utilization) versus marketing claims

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rtx5090max
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rtx5090max

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.