# Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.443 on Apr 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 38% across 7 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rtx5090mon
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:05:50.875Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 38% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $43K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chennai Super Kings | 4¢ | +1pp | $17K | kalshi | /markets/will-chennai-super-kings-win-the-ipl-chennai-super-kalshi-kxipl-26-csk |
| Nate Diaz | 38¢ | −2pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-nate-diaz-win-the-diaz-vs-perry-professional-kalshi-kxufcfight-26may16diaper-dia |
| Before 2027 | 18¢ | −2pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-sovereign-wealth-fund-be-operational-b-kalshi-kxusfund-27 |
| Mike Perry | 61¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-perry-win-the-diaz-vs-perry-professional-kalshi-kxufcfight-26may16diaper-per |
| Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 95¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-roberto-snchez-palomino-finish-2nd-in-the-fir-kalshi-kxperupres2nd-26mar25-2-rpal |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 43¢ | +8pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-tulsi-gabbard-be-the-next-person-to-leave-the-kalshi-kxcabout-26apr20-tgab |
| AI | 10¢ | −3pp | $241 | kalshi | /markets/will-ai-be-time-person-of-the-year-in-2026-ai-kalshi-kxtime-26-ai |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 10 |
| 2026-04-19 | 30 |
| 2026-04-26 | 48 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Tulsi Gabbard −19pp 54→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Tulsi Gabbard +8pp 35→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Tulsi Gabbard −7pp 56→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Nate Diaz +6pp 29→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Tulsi Gabbard +6pp 49→55¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market assesses whether NVIDIA's RTX 5090 GPU will cost more than $0.443 per compute hour on April 30, 2026—a metric combining hardware price and computational performance. The 27% probability reflects expectations that the RTX 5090 will likely offer better value than this threshold, either through competitive pricing or substantial performance gains. GPU pricing depends on NVIDIA's official launch price, real-world benchmark performance data, and competing products from AMD and Intel. The market will resolve once detailed specifications and pricing become public at product launch, allowing analysts to calculate actual compute-per-hour costs. Key factors include NVIDIA's historical pricing strategy for flagship chips, expected performance improvements over prior generations, competing GPU offerings at launch, and whether demand pressures lead to premium or competitive positioning.

### Key factors

- Official RTX 5090 launch price relative to prior flagship models (historical pricing patterns suggest $1,500-2,000 range)
- Measured compute performance vs. RTX 4090 in standard benchmarks (determines denominator in cost-per-compute calculation)
- Availability and pricing of competing high-end GPUs from AMD and Intel at time of launch
- Actual launch date and market availability (currently unconfirmed for 2026)
- Whether the $0.443 threshold was calculated using specific performance metrics or assumptions that may differ from real-world measurements

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rtx5090mon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rtx5090mon

## License

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