# Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.25 in May 2027

> Above $0.50 leads at 76%, runner-up 74% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rtx5090ms
Updated: 2026-06-19T09:20:18.810Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $0.50 at 76%
- Runner-up: Above $0.50 at 74%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $0.50 | 76¢ | +26pp | $635 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-26aug-0.500 |
| Above $0.50 | 74¢ | +2pp | $300 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-26sep-0.500 |
| Above $0.50 | 68¢ | +13pp | $742 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-27mar-0.500 |
| Above $0.50 | 66¢ | +8pp | $249 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-27apr-0.500 |
| Above $0.75 | 44¢ | −16pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-26oct-0.750 |
| Above $0.75 | 32¢ | −11pp | $508 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-26aug-0.750 |
| Above $1.50 | 12¢ | −14pp | $338 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-27mar-1.500 |
| Above $1.50 | 10¢ | −13pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-26dec-1.500 |
| Above $1.50 | 10¢ | −17pp | $925 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-27jan-1.500 |
| Above $2.00 | 8¢ | −5pp | $293 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-27jun-2.000 |
| Above $1.75 | 8¢ | −20pp | $233 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-27feb-1.750 |
| Above $1.75 | 7¢ | −19pp | $632 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-26dec-1.750 |
| Above $1.75 | 7¢ | −13pp | $581 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-27jan-1.750 |
| Above $2.00 | 7¢ | −28pp | $420 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-27apr-2.000 |
| Above $2.00 | 6¢ | −16pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-27mar-2.000 |
| Above $1.00 | 3¢ | −12pp | $284 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-26jun-1.000 |
| Above $1.50 | 3¢ | — | $234 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-26jun-1.500 |
| Above $2.00 | 3¢ | −25pp | $183 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxrtx5090ms-26nov-2.000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $0.50 | Above $0.50 | Above $0.50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 56 | 74 | 55 |
| 2026-06-18 | 82 | 76 | 68 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Above $2.00 −28pp 36→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $0.50 +26pp 56→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $2.00 −25pp 27→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $1.75 −20pp 28→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $1.75 −19pp 26→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates an 86% probability that NVIDIA's RTX 5090 will have a monthly average compute price above $1.25 in May 2027. The current high probability reflects expectations of sustained demand and pricing stability roughly 11 months from now. Key drivers include near-term supply constraints through late 2026—evidenced by much lower probabilities for hitting $1.00 in July and August—followed by potential normalization as supply catches up. The contract chain shows traders pricing in initial scarcity premiums that erode over time, with confidence declining sharply for higher price thresholds in 2027. Resolution will depend on actual RTX 5090 availability, competing GPU supply, and enterprise compute demand intensity during that period.

### Key factors

- The near-term December 2026 contract trades at 69¢ (69% probability of >$0.50), suggesting traders expect rapid price appreciation from current levels to May 2027
- Probability drops significantly for higher thresholds ($1.50+ by January 2027 trades at only 8¢), indicating skepticism about sustained premium pricing beyond initial launch scarcity
- The 86% probability for $1.25 in May sits between near-term scarcity premiums and longer-term price normalization, placing it at an inflection point where supply catches up but demand remains elevated
- Summer 2026 contracts show very low probabilities for $1.00+ (6-9¢), implying expected inventory constraints have already been priced in through late 2026
- The multi-month spread of outcomes suggests pricing follows a supply-normalization curve rather than a spike-and-crash pattern

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rtx5090ms
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rtx5090ms
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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