# Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jun 26

> Above $0.50 leads at 71%, runner-up 64% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rtx5090ws
Updated: 2026-06-26T13:20:49.793Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above $0.50 at 71%
- Runner-up: Above $0.50 at 64%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $0.50 | 71¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-kalshi-kxrtx5090ws-26jul03-0.500 |
| Above $0.50 | 64¢ | −26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-kalshi-kxrtx5090ws-26jul10-0.500 |
| Above $0.50 | 61¢ | +60pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-kalshi-kxrtx5090ws-26jul17-0.500 |
| Above $0.50 | 59¢ | +58pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-kalshi-kxrtx5090ws-26jul24-0.500 |
| Above $0.50 | 58¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-kalshi-kxrtx5090ws-26jul31-0.500 |
| Above $1.50 | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-kalshi-kxrtx5090ws-26jul31-1.500 |
| Above $0.75 | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-rtx-5090-compute-per-hour-price-be-kalshi-kxrtx5090ws-26jul31-0.750 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $0.50 | Above $0.50 | Above $0.50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 90 | — |
| 2026-06-20 | 77 | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 70 | 64 | 61 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Above $0.50 +76pp 1→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above $0.50 +60pp 1→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above $0.50 +58pp 1→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above $0.50 −26pp 90→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above $0.50 +5pp 65→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract measures whether NVIDIA's RTX 5090 GPU will cost less than $0.50 per hour to rent for compute tasks on June 26 at 4 PM ET. The 3% probability reflects skepticism that pricing will be this low. Current RTX 5090 pricing in the market appears substantially higher than this threshold, which would require either significant price declines, increased supply reducing rental costs, or a shift in how compute-per-hour is calculated or measured. The main drivers moving this probability would be actual rental rate data from major cloud providers closer to the resolution date and any significant changes in GPU supply or demand dynamics. The June 26 resolution date itself serves as the critical event—real-time pricing data on that date will determine the outcome, making pre-resolution speculation dependent on tracking near-term pricing trends from services like Lambda Labs, Vast.ai, or major cloud platforms.

### Key factors

- Current RTX 5090 rental rates from established compute platforms are materially above $0.50/hour, creating a structural headwind for the 'above $0.50' outcome
- Supply volume and competitive pricing pressure in the weeks before June 26 could compress rates downward, though dramatic declines of 50%+ would be required
- The specific measurement methodology and source for the 4 PM ET June 26 price snapshot is critical—ambiguity here could introduce interpretation risk
- Market liquidity on this contract remains very low ($0 24h volume on Kalshi), suggesting limited conviction or information among traders
- A seven-week window allows for sufficient time to observe actual pricing trends, but near-term market data will be the primary driver of probability movement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rtx5090ws
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rtx5090ws
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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