# Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...

> June 30 leads at 37%, runner-up 4% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.185Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: June 30 at 37%
- Runner-up: May 31 at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 37¢ | +1pp | $88 | polymarket | /markets/ruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa-by-june-30-polymarket-0x3d529e0abd4eb7c599ddc3ac54b5f0de9d5dd5455e8d83903cd0b5f967be20c0 |
| May 31 | 4¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/ruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa-by-may-31-polymarket-0xac594b2385387474e8ad819047a94549ac6fbd1c6ccdb8a2515a36a3427faac0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 30 | May 31 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 37 | 10 |
| 2026-05-28 | 38 | 10 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Ruben Rocha will be removed from the governorship of Sinaloa by June 30, 2026. The 38% price on the June 30 contract suggests traders view an exit within the next month as plausible but not the base case. Rocha, who took office in October 2024, faces persistent security challenges in the state, including ongoing cartel violence and territorial disputes. The probability is driven primarily by two factors: the severity of violence in Sinaloa and political pressure from the Mexican federal government regarding state-level governance. Most of the trading volume concentrates on the June 30 deadline rather than the May 31 option (currently 10%), indicating traders expect resolution timelines measured in weeks rather than days. Any major escalation of violence, federal intervention, or formal removal proceedings would likely shift the probability significantly. The contract structure isolates uncertainty to a defined timeframe, allowing traders to express views on near-term political stability in the state.

### Key factors

- Trading volume favors June 30 over May 31 (9x higher volume), suggesting traders expect removal would occur mid-to-late June if at all rather than immediately
- Rocha assumed office in October 2024 after winning election; early removal would represent extraordinary political intervention, which markets price as unlikely though possible
- Sinaloa has experienced elevated cartel violence and organized crime activity; specific incidents or federal security assessments could trigger removal pressure
- The May 31 contract price (10¢) shows minimal conviction in imminent removal, while June 30 at 37¢ reflects meaningful but still minority probability
- Mexican federal government precedent and legal mechanisms for governor removal during term would determine feasibility independent of circumstances

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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