# What will Marco Rubio say during Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing

> Embassy leads at 83%, runner-up 82% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rubiomention
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.799Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-17

## Headline

- Leader: Embassy at 83%
- Runner-up: China / Chinese at 82%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Embassy | 83¢ | +23pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-emba |
| China / Chinese | 82¢ | +14pp | $151 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-chin |
| Nuclear | 81¢ | +11pp | $128 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-nucl |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | 80¢ | +13pp | $133 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-nego |
| Hormuz | 77¢ | +16pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-horm |
| Israel / Israeli | 77¢ | +9pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-isra |
| Cuba / Cuban | 76¢ | +6pp | $130 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-cuba |
| Democrat | 76¢ | +21pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-demo |
| Ceasefire | 75¢ | +8pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-ceas |
| Ukraine | 71¢ | +13pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-ukra |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 69¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-oil |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 66¢ | +14pp | $61 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-ai |
| Palestine / Gaza | 66¢ | +16pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-pale |
| NATO | 62¢ | +4pp | $52 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-nato |
| Board of Peace | 47¢ | +17pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-boar |
| Tariff | 28¢ | +8pp | $135 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-tari |
| Climate | 24¢ | +1pp | $124 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-clim |
| 2028 / Campaign | 17¢ | +1pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-2028 |
| Trump (5+ times) | 14¢ | +2pp | $332 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-marco-rubio-say-during-senate-foreign-re-kalshi-kxrubiomention-26jun02-trum |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Embassy | China / Chinese | Nuclear |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 38 | 51 | 61 |
| 2026-05-27 | 55 | 65 | 66 |
| 2026-05-28 | 78 | 79 | 77 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Embassy +23pp 55→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Democrat +21pp 56→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Israel / Israeli +18pp 50→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Embassy +17pp 38→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Board of Peace +17pp 42→59¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market measures the probability that Marco Rubio will mention Israel or Israeli-related topics during an upcoming Senate Foreign Relations Committee State Department Budget Hearing. At 68%, the market indicates traders consider it more likely than not that Israel will be discussed, reflecting both Rubio's known foreign policy interests and the frequency with which Middle Eastern affairs arise in such hearings. The current probability is primarily driven by Rubio's consistent focus on Israeli security matters and his role as a senior committee member, balanced against uncertainty about the specific hearing's agenda and which topics will receive attention. The hearing itself—scheduled for early June 2026—will definitively resolve whether Israel or Israeli issues are mentioned, making the actual event the key catalyst for settlement.

### Key factors

- Rubio's documented voting record and public statements on Israel policy as a reliable indicator of likely discussion topics
- The frequency with which Middle East and Israeli issues appear in State Department budget hearings versus other foreign policy topics
- The specific agenda items and witness testimony scheduled for the hearing, which will determine topical focus
- Competition from other high-priority topics (Trump mentions at 34%, Democratic responses at 53%, embassy matters at 63%) that could consume hearing time
- The hearing date in early June 2026 as the resolution trigger—the actual occurrence will determine definitively whether Israel is mentioned

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rubiomention
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rubiomention
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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