# Leigh Leopards vs Huddersfield Giants Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 12 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rugbyeslmatch
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:52.756Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 38% / Polymarket 21% — 17pp spread
- 24h volume: $44K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mumbai Indians | 59¢ | −6pp | $29K | kalshi | /markets/mumbai-indians-vs-lucknow-super-giants-winner-mumb-kalshi-kxiplgame-26may04lsgmi-mi |
| Lucknow Super Giants | 40¢ | +7pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/mumbai-indians-vs-lucknow-super-giants-winner-luck-kalshi-kxiplgame-26may04lsgmi-lsg |
| Royal Challengers Bengaluru | 60¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/lucknow-super-giants-vs-royal-challengers-bengalur-kalshi-kxiplgame-26may07rcblsg-rcb |
| Lucknow Super Giants | 36¢ | +2pp | $964 | kalshi | /markets/lucknow-super-giants-vs-royal-challengers-bengalur-kalshi-kxiplgame-26may07rcblsg-lsg |
| Lucknow Super Giants | 48¢ | — | $75 | kalshi | /markets/chennai-super-kings-vs-lucknow-super-giants-winner-kalshi-kxiplgame-26may10lsgcsk-lsg |
| Chennai Super Kings | 47¢ | — | $55 | kalshi | /markets/chennai-super-kings-vs-lucknow-super-giants-winner-kalshi-kxiplgame-26may10lsgcsk-csk |
| Carleigh Beriont | 7¢ | −1pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/nh-01-democratic-primary-winner-carleigh-beriont-polymarket-0x7d145bcc5ba69711989e88df77d3b91858bd020277becfe903583f538a01e265 |
| KT Wiz | 16¢ | −2pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/lotte-giants-vs-kt-wiz-winner-kt-wiz-kalshi-kxkbogame-26may050100lotktw-ktw |
| Lotte Giants | 28¢ | +11pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/lotte-giants-vs-kt-wiz-winner-lotte-giants-kalshi-kxkbogame-26may050100lotktw-lot |
| 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Cal Raleigh | 10¢ | +9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-al-hank-aaron-winner-cal-raleigh-polymarket-0x3da34b8984fc18f9894a7afb26e68fa4bee5f060d11549f61256336cafee877f |
| AL Platinum Glove Winner: Cal Raleigh | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-al-platinum-glove-winner-cal-raleigh-polymarket-0x5839f55a76a8d468ddc85d254ead6e5c84cc0678095e542447bea00d8f38426e |
| Tokyo Yakult Swallows | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/tokyo-yakult-swallows-vs-yomiuri-giants-winner-tok-kalshi-kxnpbgame-26may050100yakyom-yak |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 11 |
| 2026-04-19 | 23 |
| 2026-04-26 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 29 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Lucknow Super Giants +14pp 22→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Cal Raleigh −13pp 26→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Lotte Giants +11pp 19→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Mumbai Indians +10pp 54→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Royal Challengers Bengaluru +9pp 52→61¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rugbyeslmatch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rugbyeslmatch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.